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  • Tim McGill

You Call This Winter?

About Or Above Average


Winter may have started on Tuesday but it doesn't really feel like it. Yesterday's high of 48° was nearly 10° above average.


The coldest day coming over the next week or so could be Sunday. Our highs might not get out of the 30s but the expected high of 39° is actually right around average.


A weak cold front will cross through the area early today. That combined with more clouds will keep us at least a few degrees colder today compared to yesterday. Look for highs today in the lower to middle 40s. It will be just a bit breezy today too which will make it feel more like the lower to middle 30s.

So back to about average this weekend with highs in the upper 30s to near 40°. That will be followed by a warm up next week. Highs a week from today could be 15° to almost 20° above average according to the GFS temperature anomaly forecast. That would mean highs in the lower 50s or warmer. That is a bit of a bump in temperatures compared to what the model was suggesting yesterday.




Some Glimmers Of Hope For Snow


It's not much but there is some signs of possible snowfall in our not too distant future. The GFS model suggest some light snow on Monday with perhaps a dusting in some spots. The model also hints at rain next Friday changing to snow early Saturday.


The ten day accumulated snowfall forecasts from both the GFS model and the the European model have some mixed signals.


The GFS model is the most hopeful with an inch or two total snowfall between now and a week from Friday.

The European model is more stingy with snowfall. It is suggesting maybe a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch of snow possible in total.


ECMWF Total Snowfall Accumulation Forecast Through Friday, December 18th


Looking Longer Range At Temps


Average highs for this time of the year have now slipped into the upper 30s. Saturday and Sunday will be about average but every other day of the next seven will be above average. As mentioned above, there could be some 50s by the end of next week.


The longer range temperature probability forecasts had been consistently favoring us for above average temperatures overall into the middle of the month. There is a change with the most recent model runs though. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast still has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from December 8th through December 12th but the longer range 8-14 day forecast from December 10th through the 16th now has us near normal. This could be indicating a change towards a colder pattern for the end of December. That would mean a better chance for a white Christmas. I'll keep you posted.




Relatively Dry Pattern To Continue


The longer range precipitation probabilities forecast favors us below average precipitation overall through the middle of the month. The 6-10 day forecast from December 8th through December 12th has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall. The 8-14 day forecast from December 10th through December 16th also has us below average overall.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly sunny, a bit breezy High: 44


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 43


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 41


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 28 High: 39

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance of light snow Low: 29 High: 40


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 32 High: 45

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 33 High: 49


#ilwx

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