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  • Tim McGill

Winter Off To Quiet Start

Updated: Dec 3, 2020

Even though we ended November on a cold note, the month was overall 7.1° above average. That makes it the 4th warmest November on record!

The combination of lighter winds and more sunshine should make a big difference today after a blustery and cold Tuesday. It should feel around 20° to 25° warmer when taking into consideration yesterday's wind chills.


The past couple of days have been the coldest we have seen in over eight months. Tuesday's high of 35° to mark the start of meteorological winter was the coldest we have seen since March 21st's high of 35°.


I don't see anything that cold in the forecast for at least the next ten days. Today's highs should climb into the middle 40s or around 4° to 5° above average.


Temperatures should be near or above average all the way through the weekend. A week from today we could be 10° to almost 15° above average according to the GFS temperature anomaly forecast. That would mean highs near 50°.




Scant Snowfall In Forecast


Sorry snow lovers but the chances for any significant snow over the next two weeks is slim. The GFS model suggest some light snow later Sunday into Monday but it would amount to little more than a dusting.



The ten day accumulated snowfall forecasts from both the GFS model and the the European model show very little snowfall in total.


The GFS model is the least hopeful with a dusting to a tenth of an inch for some spots near the lakefront.


The European model offers a little more hope. It squeezes out around a tenth of an inch to just over a half inch in total. That would fall sometime late Monday into Tuesday.





Relatively Mild Pattern


Decent temperatures for early December for the next several days. The coldest day I see is Monday with highs in the upper 30s which is right around average. Every other day on the meteogram below has highs above average.



The longer range temperature probability forecasts have been consistently favoring us for above average temperatures overall into the middle of the month. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from December 7th through December 11th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast from December 9th through the 15th also has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall too.




The even longer range experimental multi-model ensemble keeps us near normal for the week ending December 18th and above normal for the week ending on Christmas Day. This forecast will be updated on Friday but if it doesn't change, our dreams of a white Christmas might start to fade a bit.




Mainly Dry Through Middle Of December


The longer range precipitation probabilities favors us for near or below average precipitation overall through the middle of the month. The 6-10 day forecast from December 7th through December 11th has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall. The 8-14 day forecast from December 9th through December 15th has us near normal for the period.



Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Sunny skies High: 45


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 43


Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 29 High: 42


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 40

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 39


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 43

Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 26 High: 44


#ilwx

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