Logo for web.png
Subscribe to My Newsletter

Thanks for subscribing!

  • Tim McGill

Windy Weekend With Some Wintry Weather Possible

Above Average Streak Ends


We eked out another above average day on Thursday. Our high hit 64 at 12:44 in the morning but then temperatures tumbled and we spent most of the daytime in the 50s. It was the tenth day in a row with above average temperatures. We followed that last night with the coldest night of the season so far and the coldest morning in nearly six months. After starting off the day near or below freezing (even a few spots in the upper 20s) we will see highs on this Friday in the middle 50s.

We will be warmer and windy on Saturday. More on that below but first a look at the possibility of some wintry weather for Sunday and Monday.


Wintry Weather Sunday & Monday?


The GFS model is going a bit overboard on snowfall potential. The snowfall accumulation forecast through late Monday suggests between an inch or two of snow to nearly a half a foot well west of the city. The chances for snow would be primarily early Sunday and again early Monday. Most likely this will be mainly a period of cold rain with the possibility of some wet snowflakes mixing in from time to time. The ground is warm and it won't be sufficiently cold in a deep enough layer to lay down the kind of snow the model is indicating. Still, like I mentioned in yesterday's post, there is a non-zero chance at some snow Sunday and Monday. I'll refine that forecast further tomorrow. For now though, take the GFS snowfall forecast with a grain or two of salt.



Winds Of October


What is more certain are some gust winds on Saturday. Today will be breezy with occasional gusts over 30 mph. Saturday's gusts could reach over 40 mph with occasional gusts approaching 50 mph. A fire weather watch has been issued for counties well south of the city from Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Those counties include Kankakee, Livingston, Iroquois and Ford Counties in Illinois and Lake, Porter, Newton, Jasper, Benton Counties in Indiana.


The National Weather Service says "the combination of strong winds, very low relative humidity, warm temperatures, and exceptionally dry fuels will likely promote extremely dangerous behavior of any fires on Saturday. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended."



Strap In For Wild Temperature Ride


A typical fall rollercoaster ride of temperatures expected over the next several days. The coldest days will be Sunday and Monday when some models have highs failing to get out of the 40s. We will see a slow but steady warm up next week with 60s possible by the end of the week.


A look at longer range forecasts show a possible return of colder air by the end of the month.

The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us near normal from October 21s through the 25th. The 8-14 day day forecast has us outlooked for colder than average temperatures overall from October 23rd through the 29th as the colder pattern shifts southward from the plains and northwest into the Great Lakes and midwest.



More Active Pattern


Spotty showers possible today and then scattered showers possible Sunday and Monday. As mentioned above, some of the rain could mix with a few wet snowflakes early Sunday and Monday.

This more active pattern could continue through the end of the month. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability forecasts have us outlooked for above average precipitation overall from October 21st through the 29th.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Becoming mostly cloudy, blustery, spotty showers High: 55


Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy & milder Low: 39 High: 63


Sunday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers (possibly mixing w/light snow early) Low: 42 High: 50


Monday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers (possibly mixing w/light snow early) Low: 35 High: 48


Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, spotty showers Low: 38 High: 52


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 37 High: 56


Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 43 High: 60


#ilwx

0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Disclosure:  Some of the links on my site are affiliate links, meaning, at no additional cost to you, I will earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase.