Windy Weekend & Wild Temperature Ride
Slow Upward Climb Today
Thursday was the second time this month our highs failed to get out of the 40s. Our high of 46° was about 4° below average. Average highs starting today fall into the 40s. Today's average high is 49°. By December 3rd our average highs drop into the 30s.
We enjoyed a lot of sunshine yesterday and today we will start off with sunshine but clouds will build this afternoon with showers eventually developing mainly late. Southerly winds will kick in as a warm front nudges north of the area to help push our highs by late today to near 50°.
A wind advisory goes into effect at midnight through 6 pm Sunday. Today's gusts will be climbing past 30 mph late in the day. Gusts on Sunday could approach 50 mph. Winds will stay strong through Sunday evening before diminishing by early Monday.
Rollercoaster Ride Continues
Temperatures will be all over the place over the next seven days. We will slowly climb to near 50° by late today but fall into the 40s Sunday and possibly the 30s by late in the afternoon. Another shot of colder air on Tuesday then we bounce back. Highs by Thursday should sail to near 60°.
The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for next Thursday looks like it is on fire. The Midwest along with most of the country will be above average for the middle of November. We could be between 10° to nearly 20° above average. That means highs near 60°.
Mild For End Of The Month?
The long range forecasts still signal a return to above average temperatures overall for period covering the end of next week through Black Friday. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has a stronger signal than the even longer range 8-14 day forecast. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.
Showers develop mainly later today. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out tonight. Most of the rain should end by Sunday morning but some sprinkles and even a few flurries possible at times on Sunday mainly north and west of the city. After that, the next chance of rain doesn't arrive until next Saturday.
Speaking Of Snow
The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast run out through the Friday after Thanksgiving is now showing a near miss with some heavy snow just north of us next weekend. It lays down a swath of snow nearly a foot deep just north of the Wisconsin border. This will have to be watched but I expect this to change again. The past few days this forecast showed very little snow in that same area. Stay tuned.
Both longer range forecasts offer some hopes for above average precipitation overall. That's good news especially for portions of central Illinois that is in a moderate drought. The 6-10 day forecast from November 19th through the November 23rd and the even longer range 8-14 day forecast from November 21st through the 27th both have us favored for above average precipitation (either rain or snow but mostly rain based on the temperature forecast) overall.
The U.S. Drought monitor is reporting a deepening drought for central Illinois. Over the last week the area in a moderate drought has increased slightly. A pocked of severe drought has also developed downstate. We are down by nearly an inch of rain compared to normal so far this month here.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Becoming cloudy, windy, showers develop pm High: 50 (near midnight)
Sunday: Windy & colder, mostly cloudy, sprinkles or flurries possible Low: 38 High: 44
Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 49
Tuesday: Mostly sunny Low: 28 High: 41
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 27 High: 49
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 39 High: 60
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 45 High: 54