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  • Tim McGill

Windy Today Then Wintry Tomorrow

Hold On To Your Hat & Everything Else Today

More weather whiplash. 60s today and still at least a small chance for some spots to get some snow Sunday.

Today's highs will be 10° warmer than yesterday and just a bit above average (62°). Look for highs today in the lower to middle 60s.

The wind is the big weather story today. Gusts during the middle of the day and well into the afternoon could reach 50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect from 10 AM until 7 PM today. Luckily it is a mild south wind on this Saturday. Notice the wind shift early tomorrow to the northwest. That's when some of the coldest air of the season so far arrives and the reason why some areas may fail to get out of the 40s on Sunday. It will be the coldest day in over six months.

Dangerous Combination

Low humidity in combination with strong winds means a significant fire danger today. A red flag warning is in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

The National Weather Service warns of the impacts:

The combination of strong winds, very low relative humidity, mild temperatures, and exceptionally dry fuels will likely promote extremely dangerous behavior of any fires. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. The threat is greatest in rural areas where harvest activities are occurring. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Temperature Rollercoaster Ride Continues

Highs will fall into the 40s Sunday but that will be followed by a slow but steady warm up next week. Highs by Wednesday warm up to near 60° and could be in the 70s by Thursday.

Some October Snow?

I've been mentioning the at least slight chance for some snow on Sunday. The GFS model has been suggesting snow now for the past few days. The latest run of the model lays down some light accumulation northwest of the city Sunday morning with up to nearly three quarters of an inch possible. It will mostly be a cold rain but don't be surprised if some wet snow mixes in at times in those areas. Although the winds will die down tomorrow we will still have wind chills in the 30s at times. Sunday will seem more like December than October.

We can't hold the snow back forever. The GFS snowfall accumulation forecast run out through next weekend shows quite a bit of it just north and west of here. Most of that would come late next weekend. Still way to early to get worried about it but it does suggest that after our warm up next week there could be a shift in our pattern.

Colder Pattern Comes Back Again

So enjoy the upcoming warm up next week because indications from the long range forecasts say colder air will come crashing back in next weekend and stick around through the end of the month. Both 6-10 day and the The 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has outlooked for below average temperatures overall from October 22nd through the 30th.

Precipitation should be light Sunday and Monday. Heavier rain could come in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms could fall next Friday according to the GFS meteogram.

This more active pattern may continue through the end of the month. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability forecasts have us outlooked with probabilities that favor above average precipitation overall from October 22nd through the 30th.

Here is my 7 day forecast: Today: Mostly cloudy, spotty showers, windy (gusts to 50 mph) & milder High: 64 Sunday: Cloudy & colder, sct. showers (possibly mixing w/light snow early) Low: 43 High: 48 Monday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers Low: 38 High: 50 Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 38 High: 54 Wednesday: Mostly cloudy Low: 43 High: 60 Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 48 High: 67

Friday: Scattered showers & thunderstorms Low: 51 High: 55 #ilwx


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