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  • Tim McGill

Will There Be A Side Of Snow Before Thanksgiving?

We had a trace of snow at the end of October and none so far this November. We average about 1.2" for the month. There is still hope for some snow over the next few days but if it falls it will be fleeting. More snow discussion below.



Hard to get snow in November when your temperature is running nearly 8° above average. This month has felt a lot more like a typical October. Thursday's high of 61° was 15° above average.


More cloud cover today and a light northeast breeze will keep us cooler compared to what we've seen lately. Our highs will actually be around average in the middle 40s.

Highs will hover right around average through Monday and then start to warm a bit for the end of next week. Wednesday's highs could top 50°. Highs on Thanksgiving will be near 50° and just a degree or two cooler on Black Friday.




Thankful For A "Mild" Thanksgiving Forecast


The GFS temperature anomaly forecasts for Thanksgiving and Black Friday are awash in brown. The anomaly forecast shows how much above or below average any part of the country will be. If this verifies, Thanksgiving will be between 4° and 9° above average. That would mean highs between 47° to 52°.


Black Friday's anomaly forecast pushes highs to between 7° and 11° above average or between 49° and 53°.



Growing Blob Of Blue


I mentioned in yesterday's post some blue was finally showing up on one of the longer range temperature probability forecasts. That blob of blue has expanded a bit out west but disappears entirely in the longer range forecast. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast still has us outlooked for above average temperatures for the end of the month from November 26th through the 30th. The 8-14 day forecast from November 27th through the December 3rd keeps the relatively mild pattern going through the start of December. All lower 48 states are forecast for normal or above normal temperatures during the period of November 28th through December 4th.




A More Active Pattern


Our pattern becomes a bit more active in favor of precipitation over the next few days. It doesn't take much to be more active when we have only seen four days this month with more than a trace of rain. We are running about and inch and a half below normal on rainfall so far this month. The GFS model brings in some light rain (especially south) late tonight in to early Sunday. There could be a brief mix with some light snow. The best chance of rain comes later Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow may be mixed with that late Monday night. More on our snow chances below.




Any Snow In Sight?


For all you snow lovers there is at least faint hope for a few flakes the next few days.

The European model is the most optimistic. It suggests a dusting to maybe a bit more than an inch could fall Tuesday.



The GFS model is more stingy with snowfall. The total snowfall accumulation forecast squeezes out just over a half inch total north and west of the city between this Sunday and next Sunday. Of that total only about a tenth of an inch is forecast early Sunday with about a half inch late Monday night into early Tuesday. It wouldn't stick around long though since highs on Tuesday are forecast to climb well into the 40s. I'm leaning more in favor of the GFS snowfall forecast.



Drying Out Into Early December


The longer range precipitation probabilities continues to favor a fairly dry forecast for the end of the month into early December. The 6-10 day forecast from November 26th through November 30th has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall. The even longer range 8-14 day forecast from November 28th through the December 4th continues to favor us for below average precipitation too.



Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly cloudy, cooler, light breezes High: 47


Sunday: Cloudy, chance of light rain mainly south Low: 36 High: 45


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 43


Tuesday: Light rain/snow mix early then light rain Low: 32 High: 47


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 39 High: 51

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 33 High: 50


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 48


#ilwx

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