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  • Tim McGill

Warmest Weekend Since August

Turning Up The Heat & Humidity


We bumped our temperatures above average for the first time on Wednesday after seven straight days with below average temperatures. We now start a new streak, counting days in a row with above average temperatures. This new streak should stretch to at least seven days in a row and judging by the longer range forecasts, probably even longer.


Average highs for today's date are around 77°. Highs today will climb into the lower to middle 80s. The cooler end of that range will be experienced right along the lakefront.


Yesterday's wind off the lake held temperatures below 80° for most of us with the exceptions of Aurora and Rockford where highs hit 80° and 83° respectively. Southwest winds will be light enough today to allow for a light lake breeze along the immediate lake front but they'll blow strong enough tomorrow to bring 80s all the way to the lakefront. There should be plenty of sunshine today but an increase of clouds by this evening and a slight chance for a few light showers or sprinkles (mainly north) overnight into early Friday morning. The probability of precipitation stays below 20% at O'Hare through tomorrow.


The meteogram below considers several different model forecasts of temperatures. Highs in the 80s or warmer are expected all the way through at least next Wednesday.


The GFS model shows middle to upper 80s here on Saturday. I think the model is running a bit cool for the weekend and I expect most areas to hit 90° Saturday.


The temperature anomaly forecast for Saturday shows the extent of anomalous warming that will cover most of the country. Locally, we should see temperatures Saturday afternoon around 10° to 15° above average.


The GFS model has highs a couple of degrees warmer for Sunday compared to Saturday. I think we can add at least 2° to 3° to these numbers with most areas hitting highs of 90° or more.


This should be the warmest weekend since late August last year. The last weekend that was close to being this warm was when O'Hare hit 89° on Saturday, August 22nd and 92° on Saturday, August 23rd.


It's not just the heat this time of year, it's also the humidity that makes a difference in how it feels. The models push our dew points from the 50s today to near 70° by early next week. Today should still feel relatively pleasant but it definitely will feel more muggy by the weekend.






Umbrellas Stay Stuck In Closets


Still no real significant rain the the near-term forecast. Our drought will most likely deepen through the weekend and into early next week.


I will have the latest drought analysis tomorrow but here is a recap of the drought situation that I shared in a recent post:


The latest analysis from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed virtually no change from last week. The area of the state in a moderate drought remains at 6.58%. There was also no change in the area in a severe drought. Nearly 3% of northern Illinois is in that category. That includes the north side of the city, northern DuPage & Cook counties, northeastern Kane county, all of Lake county and most of McHenry county. The percentage of the state that is abnormally dry dropped just .01%.


O'Hare is now down 7.21" of rain since the start of spring. Our next decent chance for rain is late Monday into Tuesday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

The GFS model total rainfall forecast through next Thursday afternoon is not terribly encouraging. We'll take any rain we can get but more will be needed to draw us out of our drought. The model shows a range of rainfall from around a half inch to just over an inch expected in total over the course of the next seven days.




Bringing The Heat In June


The middle of this month is outlooked to be above average starting next Tuesday and continuing through the following weekend and into early the next week. The 6-10 day forecast strongly favors us for above average temperatures overall from June 8th through June 12th with probabilities between 70% and 80%. The longer range 8-14 day forecast continues to keeps us above average overall from June 10th through June 16th with probabilities between 50% and 60%.



The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecast is favoring the Chicago area for a warmer than average middle and later part of June. The average highs for this period are in the lower 80s. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending June 18th has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall. The forecast for the following week ending on June 25th also has Chicago outlooked for above average temperatures overall.







Mixed Signals For Rainfall

The long range precipitation probability forecasts have are split with one suggesting above average rainfall and the other dropping us back below average overall. The latest 6-10 day forecast has Chicago favored for above average precipitation from June 8th through June 12th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has us favored for below average precipitation overall from June 10th through June 16th.






Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly sunny, warmer, clouds increase late High: 85 (80 lakeside)


Friday: AM spotty shower?, partly to mostly sunny Low: 65 High: 88


Saturday: Mostly sunny, hot Low: 68 High: 92


Sunday: Mostly sunny, hot Low: 69 High: 92


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 69 High: 89


Tuesday: Partly/mostly sunny, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 68 High: 87


Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 68 High: 86


#ilwx

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