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  • Tim McGill

Warm Through Weekend Then Big Drop

Above Average Through Sunday


This week has seen some fabulous fall weather and most of the month has been relatively mild. 13 out of 22 days so far this September have been above average. The month is running just under 1° above average. We will ride the relatively warm wave that started on the first day of astronomical fall Tuesday right through the weekend with highs in at least the 70s and possibly a few 80s.


Today's highs will top out in the upper 70s with a spot or two south of the city possibly hitting 80°.

The end of the week and first part of the weekend will be the warmest part of the next seven days. Highs on Friday should hit 80° for most areas and Saturday's highs should climb into the lower 80s. Notice the dramatic drop on O'Hare's meteogram of temperatures coming early next week. Temperatures tumble into the 50s by Tuesday afternoon.



Cooler Air Coming Next Week


A cool pattern could be settling in through the start of October. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from September 28th through October 6th.



A shift back to above average temperatures could be coming by the middle of next month.

Looking even longer range the multi-model ensemble forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures for the week ending on October 16th.



Smoke Still Here


Western wildfire smoke will once again make for a milky appearance to the sun. Look for haze from that smoke in our skies again today. The HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke forecast continues to show smoke drifting from the west coast through the midwest and all the way eastward to the mid-Atlantic states.



The air quality index for our most of area will be in the moderate range today. Moderate means unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.



Dry For Tenth Day In A Row


September started off soggy with ten of the first thirteen days of the month reporting rainfall. At the end of that stretch of wet weather O'Hare's rainfall was running 1.33" above average. Today will be the tenth rain free day in a row. Our surplus of rain has now dropped to just .38" above average. There are small chances rain Thursday evening and Saturday night into early Sunday morning but the best chance over the next ten days doesn't come until Tuesday next week. The US Drought Monitor will issue an update on the moderate drought in portions of our area later this week. It's expected to show the moderate drought expanding into more areas.



Little significant rain expected through Sunday. The GFS total precipitation accumulation forecast suggests just maybe a trace to a few hundredth of an inch total between Thursday evening and the end of the weekend.



The long range precipitation probability forecast has us drying out by the first week of October. The area outlooked for below average rainfall expands from the plains to the midwest.




Here is my 7 day forecast: Today: Partly to mostly sunny High: 79 Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 58 High: 78

Friday: Sunny skies Low: 59 High: 80 Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, spotty shower late? Low: 63 High: 82 Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 61 High: 76 Monday: Partly cloudy, shower possible late Low: 58 High: 70

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 52 High: 63

#ilwx

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