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  • Tim McGill

"Warm" Is The Weather Word For Wednesday

A Review Of Our Warm World In October

The numbers at NOAA are in and October 2021 ranked as the 4th warmest October on record. The global surface temperature for the month was 1.6° above average (0.89°C). The 10 warmest Octobers have all occurred since 2003. It was the 45th consecutive October and the the 442nd consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.

October isn't an anomaly. This has been a rather warm year globally. The year-to-date (January-October) global surface temperature is 1.51° (0.84°C) is the 6th highest such period in the 142-year record.

The year is a virtual lock (greater than a 99% chance) to end up among the ten warmest years on record. It looks most likely to rank as the 6th warmest year on record.

Today Will Be Warmest Day Of The Week

We managed to climb to 61° at O'Hare early today. It will not only be the warmest part of this Wednesday it could be the warmest temperatures we see for some time. The average date of the last high of 60° or warmer over the past 60 years is November 25th at O'Hare. No sign of any 60s next week as a colder pattern kicks in for the week of Thanksgiving.

So the main weather story today is gradually falling temperatures with a cold front coming through early. The HRRR model has temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 40s by 4 pm.

It will be cold from start to finish tomorrow. The GFS Model has highs here only climbing into the upper 30s to near 40°. Average highs for this time of the year are around 48°.

Gusty winds won't help either. The GFS Model has wind chills tomorrow in the upper 20s to lower 30s. It will be not only colder tomorrow but blustery too. Winds will gust over 30 mph at times. To add further insult to injury there is a slight chance for a few flurries on Thursday.

Friday should be fairly frigid but the winds will be a lot lighter so the wind chills will be more tolerable. The GFS Model has temperatures Friday afternoon only in the middle to upper 30s. I think we will actually climb into the lower 40s for highs by then.

It won't be a steep drop but our temperatures slowly but surely fall through the 40s this afternoon into the 30s tonight. They don't recover much tomorrow.

Only spotty sprinkles, drizzle and patches of light rain today mainly south and southeast. The best chance for that rain is through early this afternoon.

The National Blend Of Models has our highs falling to near 40° tomorrow and Friday. We bounce back to about average this weekend and then turn colder for Thanksgiving week.

The GFS model temperature anomaly forecast for Thanksgiving afternoon shows temperatures here between 1° to 3° below average. That would mean highs near 40° for the holiday.

Colder Pattern For Thanksgiving Week

The longer range temperature outlooks have for the past few runs been advertising a colder than average pattern overall. The latest outlooks are no different. They cover the period from next Monday through the Tuesday after Thanksgiving. The 6-10 day outlook has us favored for below average temperatures overall from November 22nd through November 26th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also favors us for below average temperatures overall from November 24th through November 30th. Average highs for this period are in the middle 40s to upper 40s with average lows in the lower 30s.

The even longer term 30 day temperature anomaly forecast is still suggesting a colder than average period overall into the middle of next month. Most of the area is outlooked to be about 2° to 4° below average during the period. This forecast covers the period from November 15th through December 15th. The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members The model tries to give an idea of the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by running an ensemble of multiple forecasts which are each tweaked a bit with their initial conditions. Average highs by the middle of December drop into the middle 30s.

Rain Today But Some Light Snow By Monday?

Plain old rain for us today. It should be light with drizzle, spotty sprinkles and patchy rain. The GFS model's total precipitation forecast through the day tomorrow yields only about a trace to about a tenth of an inch for most of us.

Models are still suggesting some light snow is possible late Sunday night into Monday. The GFS model's total snowfall forecast through Monday spits out a tenth of an inch or too for a part of the area.

The European model is spitting out similar amounts and keeping it mainly in our northern suburbs. Stay tuned.

The GFS model's meteogram for O'Hare shows a fairly quiet pattern for the next several days. It has today's rainfall followed by a chance of more showers late Sunday into Monday. Some of that could change over into light snow.

The longer range precipitation forecasts are still trending us to a more dry period by Thanksgiving week and just beyond. The latest 6-10 day forecast starts us out favored for near normal precipitation (which can take the form of rain or snow now) from November 22nd through November 26th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation for the period from November 24th through November 30th.

Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Cloudy, breezy, spotty sprinkles, patchy light rain High: 61 (falling into the 40s)

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy Low: 31 High: 39

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 25 High: 41

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 32 High: 49

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, shower possible late Low: 35 High: 48

Monday: Light snow possible early, partly to mostly cloudy Low: 28 High: 35

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 24 High: 37


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