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  • Tim McGill

Turning On The Heat & Turning Off The Rain

Warm & Dry Pattern



After a warmer than average (7th warmest on record) and drier than average (3rd driest on record) spring, our forecast continues to call for above average temperatures and below average rainfall. In other words, it is essentially more of the same.


Monday was the 6th straight day with below average temperatures but we will now warm up through the weekend with at least six straight days above average. The longer range forecasts suggest that streak could grow by several days.


Average highs for today's date are around 76°. We should hit highs today into the upper 70s but upper 60s along the lakefront.



A light east breeze off the lake will keep us around 10° cooler lakeside today. Tomorrow's winds shift to the west and highs will climb into at least the lower 80s. The threat of rain remains low through this period at under 10%. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible but most areas should stay dry.


The meteogram below considers several different model forecasts of temperatures. We soar from the 70s today to near 90° this weekend. This weekend should be nearly 20° warmer than last weekend. It could be the warmest weekend in nearly nine months.


The GFS model shows southwest winds will sweep unseasonable warmth all the way through the lakefront Saturday. Highs should be well into the 80s to near 90°.


The temperature anomaly forecast for Saturday shows the majority of the country is expecting a warmer than average first half of the weekend. Temperatures here will be about 10° to 15° below average.


The heat keeps coming (along with moderate levels of humidity) on Sunday. The GFS model has highs hear near 90°.







No Significant Rain In Sight


The drought will most likely deepen over the next several days. There is no indication of any significant rain in the forecast all the way through the weekend.


I will have the latest drought analysis on Friday but here is a recap of the drought situation that I shared in a recent post:


The latest analysis from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed virtually no change from last week. The area of the state in a moderate drought remains at 6.58%. There was also no change in the area in a severe drought. Nearly 3% of northern Illinois is in that category. That includes the north side of the city, northern DuPage & Cook counties, northeastern Kane county, all of Lake county and most of McHenry county. The percentage of the state that is abnormally dry dropped just .01%.


O'Hare is now down 7.08" of rain since the start of spring. The GFS model suggests an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible the next few days but it is a mainly dry forecast through Monday. Better chances for more rain could come next week with the model hinting at a more active pattern next Tuesday and again late Wednesday into Thursday. The rainfall amounts though are low.


The GFS model total rainfall forecast through Monday afternoon is not encouraging. Most of the area would receive little or no rain with a few spots picking up around a tenth of an inch.





June To Heat Up


The signal remains strong for a warmer than average period overall starting next Monday and lasting through the following weekend. The 6-10 day forecast strongly favors us for above average temperatures overall from June 7th through June 11th with probabilities between 80% and 90%. The longer range 8-14 day forecast continues to keep that warmer pattern coming from June 9th through June 15th with probabilities between 60% and 70%.



The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecast is favoring the Chicago area for a warmer than average middle and later part of June. The average highs for this period are in the lower 80s. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending June 18th has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall. The forecast for the following week ending on June 25th also has Chicago outlooked for above average temperatures overall.







Precip Pattern Not Promising

The long range precipitation probability forecasts have us outlooked to stay near normal in terms of rainfall for the middle of this month. The latest 6-10 day forecast has Chicago favored for about average precipitation from June 7th through June 11th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has us favored for about average precipitation overall from June 9th through June 15th.





Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly sunny, milder High: 78 (68 lakeside)


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 57 High: 83


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 62 High: 87


Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 66 High: 90


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 68 High: 89


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 69 High: 88


Tuesday: Partly/mostly sunny, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 68 High: 87


#ilwx

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