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  • Tim McGill

This Has Never Happened In November

Rewriting The Record Book


Sunday's high of 76° shattered the old record by 3°. It was the warmest November day we have seen in over 40 years. It was also the fifth straight day with a high of 70° or more. The last time that happened was in 1953. Today will be the 6th straight day with 70s. That has never happened here. Tomorrow should extend that record streak to seven straight days with highs in the 70s.



Seems like winter has settled in out west with blizzard warnings in parts of Montana through this morning and several other western states under one type of winter weather advisory or another. Sunday saw no sign of winter though for most of the rest of the country. Several record highs were broken yesterday from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes and eastward to the Atlantic coast.



Southwest winds and some sunshine should help push our highs into record territory again today. Highs should be between 20° to 25° above average. The record high is 74°. I am forecasting a high today of 76°.



It will seem more like September for about half of the country today. Most of the eastern half of the US will have highs between 10° and 30° above average. Nearly the opposite situation in the west. The coldest air over the Rockies where it will be between 10° to 25° below average. That cold air will modify some by the time it reaches us though. The brand of cold we will experience starting Wednesday will just mark a turn towards near normal November weather.



Gusty Winds Of November


To get record highs this time of year it is a struggle to count on sunshine alone. We need some decent southerly or southwesterly winds. Today's gusts will be near 30 mph and Tuesdays could climb above 40 mph at times.



We have two more days of record breaking or near recording breaking November warmth to enjoy. I am forecasting a high of 71° tomorrow that would tie Tuesday's record. The drop in temperatures will be dramatic between Tuesday and Wednesday as we fall nearly 20° in terms of high temperatures. Keep in mind though that the 50° high for Wednesday is right around average.



Longer Term Temperature Trends


A cooler pattern will settle in starting on Wednesday but it might not stick around that long. Highs from Wednesday through the weekend will be right around average or just a bit below. It looks like there could be a return of relatively mild air for the middle of the month and maybe beyond. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 14th through the November 19th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast increases our probabilities for above average from November 16th through the 22nd. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.



Dry Pattern Ends Tuesday


Today will be the 13th straight day without a drop of rain here. Showers are expected by late Tuesday with a few thunderstorms too in advance of a cold front. More light rain possible later Saturday into Sunday.



The GFS model precipitation accumulation forecast suggest about a quarter of an inch of rain to nearly three quarters of an inch could fall from Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. That would help our deficit of nearly an inch (-.82") of rainfall compared to average so far this month.



After nearly two weeks in a row with no rain the long term precipitation probability forecasts are a mixed bag for the middle part of this month. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation from November 14th through the November 19th but we are on the low end of the probabilities. The longer range 8-14 day dries us out from November 16th through the 22nd. During that period we are outlooked for below average precipitation overall.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, gusts to 30 mph High: 76


Tuesday: Partly/mostly cloudy, chance of showers/t-storms late, windy Low: 61 High: 71


Wednesday: Mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 50


Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 55


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 35 High: 47

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, light rain at times Low: 33 High: 48


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, pm rain Low: 40 High: 53


#ilwx

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