Thawing For Thanksgiving After Today's Snow
A quick shot of slushy snow early today then a meltdown as temperatures climb into the 40s. As I mentioned in yesterday's post, we are about a week behind in seeing our first measurable snow of the season. Before today the only snow of this season was limited to a trace on two separate days in late October.
The models are suggesting about an inch of snow at O'Hare and points north and west with less in the city.
The GFS model is calling for between a half inch to an inch of accumulation for most areas. Two to three inches possible well north and west of the city.
The European model is suggesting similar amounts.
The accumulated snowfall meteogram has a range between about a third of an inch to just over two and a half inches. Notice the second bump next Monday. Another shot of light snow is possible then when we turn much colder.
50° Or Warmer For The Holiday
We climb from the lower 30s early today to the lower to middle 40s by this afternoon. Southeast winds will help warm us up enough to melt off any slushy snow we get early today. Temperatures will slowly climb well into the evening hours.
Our warm up this week is timed perfectly for a relatively mild Thanksgiving. Highs on Wednesday climb to near 50° and we should reach 50° or a bit more on Thanksgiving. More seasonably cold this weekend and then a dramatic drop into the 20s for highs suggested by the GFS model by Monday.
The models have been running a couple of degrees too cool as of late so this GFS forecast for highs near 50° on Thanksgiving might actually mean we make it into the lower 50s for most areas.
It will be a relatively mild holiday for about two thirds of the country. The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for Thursday afternoon shows temperatures about 5° to 15° above average for the majority of the nation.
"Mild" For Start Of Next Month?
The longer range outlooks for temperature continue to suggest near normal or above normal temperatures overall through the start of December. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast still has us outlooked for about average temperatures from November 29th through December 3rd. The 8-14 day forecast favors us for above average temperatures overall from November 1st through the December 7th. There are indications that we will see a quick hit of colder air right as we transition from November to December as indicated on the hourly temperature meteogram. This longer range forecast would suggest that we bounce back above average to come out overall at least a bit above normal for the start of next month.
The evening longer range experimental multi-model ensemble keeps the relatively milder air coming through the week ending December 11th and then drops us back to about average the following week that ends December 18th.
More Chances Of Snow
After today the GFS model hints at a couple more chances of snow next week. The first comes Monday as our temperatures tumble into the 20s to near 30° for a high and the second comes a week from this Thursday. As of today it looks like light snow in both cases.
Dry Outlook For Early December
The longer range precipitation probabilities keep continues to keep us drier than average from the last few days of this month into the start of the next. The 6-10 day forecast from November 29th through December 3rd has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall. The even longer range 8-14 day forecast from December 1st through December 7th continues to favor us for below average precipitation too.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Light rain and snow (1" to 2" accum.) changing to rain High: 44
Wednesday: AM fog, cloudy, on & off showers (sct. t-storm possible) Low: 41 High: 50
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 39 High: 51
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 37 High: 50
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 47
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 32 High: 45
Monday: Mostly cloudy, light snow possible Low: 26 High: 30