Sunshine Today, Strong Storms Possible Tomorrow
lt doesn't get much better than this for late June. Plenty of sunshine today, warm but pleasant with comfortable relative humidity. Highs will be about average in the lower to middle 80s but cooler along the lakefront with upper 70s. It's the calm before the stormy day that is on the way for Friday.
Steamy and stormy weather on tap for tomorrow. Highs will climb into the lower 90s and with added humidity it will feel like at least the middle 90s. The greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms is between about 7 in the evening and 6 am Saturday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center has us in an area with a slight risk for severe weather. That is level 2 out of 5 possible risk levels with 5 being the highest. The biggest threat from these storms would be damaging winds and large hail. Some of these storms could produce bow echos.
Here's the National Severe Storms Laboratory definition of a bow echo:
A “bow echo”is a radar signature of a squall line that “bows out” as winds fall behind the line and circulations develop on either end. A strongly bowed echo may indicate high winds in the middle of the line, where the storms are moving forward most quickly. Brief tornadoes may occur on the leading edge of a bow echo. Often the north side of a bow echo becomes dominant over time, gradually evolving into a comma-shaped storm complex.
The higher heat that hits on Friday may mark a longer shift towards warmer than average temperatures. Wednesday was just a bit below average but longer range forecasts favor above average temperatures overall from June 30th through July 8th.
June is running nearly 5° above average so far and July could be just as warm or warmer. The multi-model ensemble forecast for the week ending July 17th keeps the midwest outlooked for above average temperatures overall through at least the middle of the month.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Mostly sunny High: 84 (78 Lakefront)
Friday: Partly sunny, mainly pm sct. showers/t-storms (some strong) Low: 67 High: 91
Saturday: Partly sunny, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 72 High: 87
Sunday: Partly sunny, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 70 High: 86 (77 Lakefront)
Monday: Partly cloudy, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 67 High: 88 (78 Lakefront)
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, spotty shower or t-storm? Low: 68 High: 87 (77 Lakefront)
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, spotty shower or t-storm? Low: 7- High: 85 (76 Lakefront)