Sunday Soaker Then Marvelous By Memorial Day Weekend
Some areas are still reeling from Thursdays two to nearly five inches of rain. We will get a break from the rain today but could get soaked again on Sunday. Rainfall might not be as heavy this time around but still looks to be significant. The GFS model total accumulation forecast through Monday morning shows a range of as little as a half inch in the far northwest suburbs to nearly four inches in northern Indiana.
That rain begins late tonight and continues through tomorrow evening before tapering off overnight Sunday. There could be a few stray sprinkles or showers early Monday morning. We should dry out Monday afternoon and then enjoy a long stretch of rain free weather through most of Memorial Day weekend. The GFS model suggests some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day itself.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Chicagoland area in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday through Sunday night. Marginal risk means isolated severe storms possible "of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity." Damaging winds and hail appear to be the biggest threat.
A wind off the lake will keep us cooler today compared to yesterday. Highs yesterday climbed into the middle to upper 70s but today's highs will range from the middle to upper 60s west and south of the city to just upper 50s lakeside.
A slow but steady warming trend gets underway next week. After cooling off for a couple of days we should surge back into the 70s by Thursday. Sunday should be the warmest day of the year so far with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Collectively, next weekend could be the warmest weekend since September last year.
The warmer pattern that sets up towards the end of next week could stick around. While there could be an occasionally cooler day here and there the overall outlook is for above average temperatures for the end of this month. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature probability has us outlooked for warmer than average temps overall from May 21st through May 29th.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, wind off lake High: 67 (58 Lakefront)
Sunday: Showers & thunderstorms (some possibly strong) Low: 57 High: 68
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, spotty shower possible Low: 48 High: 55 (50 Lakefront)
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 48 High: 64 (57 Lakefront)
Wednesday: Mostly sunny Low: 49 High: 69 (59 Lakefront)
Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 52 High: 75 (71 Lakefront)
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 49 High: 78 (72 Lakefront)