Strong Winds, Big Waves & Some Snow
Coldest Air Of Season So Far
Most of November has been relatively mild. We are running more than 7° above average for the month. Seems like we've saved the coldest for last this month. Today will probably be the coldest day of the season so far and possibly the coldest in over eight months.
Gusty northerly winds and clouds will keep us in the lower to middle 30s today. See below for more on our wintry wind chills too today.
Indiana Bears Brunt Of Lake Effect Snow
There may be a dusting or some minor accumulation of snow in the city and areas south of the city but the main lake effect snow bands will target northern Indiana and southwest lower Michigan. The GFS model squeezes out less than a half inch along the Illinois shoreline but up to 3 inches or more near the Indiana/Michigan border. A winter weather advisory is in effect for Lake and Porter counties in Indiana. There could be some spots in LaPorte county that get up to eight inches. A winter storm warning is posted there and also in Berrien county Michigan.
The European model shows similar snowfall with light amounts in the city but most of the snowfall in Lake, Porter and LaPorte counties in Indiana.
A Chill In The Air
It will be blustery with winds gusting to near 35 mph at times. Those gusty winds combined with temperatures in the 30s will mean wind chills in the teens and 20s. Those winds diminish a bit overnight but it will still be a bit breezy on Tuesday. Highs Tuesday only reach into the middle to upper 30s with wind chills starting in the teens and then climbing into the upper 20s.
Winds Whip Up Big Waves
Gusty winds will whip up large waves on the southern end of Lake Michigan. Wave heights could reach to near 20 feet along Indiana's shoreline. A lakeshore flood warning is in effect there until noon Tuesday. Water levels may be up nearly a foot along Chicago's shores and with waves building to between nine and twelve feet there is a lakeshore flood advisory in effect until 6 am Tuesday.
Wintry Week But Long Term Warm Up
After a couple of the coldest days of the season so far we do moderate a bit by Wednesday. The warmest we get this week is lower 40s. This will be the coldest stretch of weather we have seen since March.
The longer range temperature probability forecasts suggest this current cold snap might not last long. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast still has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from December 5th through December 9th. The probabilities are a big higher for above average temperatures overall in the 8-14 day forecast from December 7th through the 13th.
The even longer range experimental multi-model ensemble keeps us near normal for the week ending December 18th and above normal for the week ending on Christmas Day.
Dry Outlook Through Middle Of December
The longer range precipitation probabilities continues to keep us drier than average overall well into December. The 6-10 day forecast from December 5th through December 9th has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall. The even longer range 8-14 day forecast from December 7th through December 13th continues to favor us for below average precipitation too. That would seem to suggest it might be tough to see a white Christmas this year. Stay tuned.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Winter Storm Warning For LaPorte County Until 8 AM Tuesday
Today: Cloudy, blustery, colder, snow showers mainly in northern Indiana High: 36
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, a bit breezy Low: 23 High: 38
Wednesday: Mostly sunny Low: 24 High: 45
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 27 High: 44
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 37 High: 50
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 45
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 31 High: 43