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  • Tim McGill

Strap In For A Bumpy October Ride

From 70s Thursday To Snow Sunday?


We have seen a wide range of temperatures so far this month. Six days have seen highs in the 50s. Six days have seen highs in the 60s. Six days have seen highs in the 70s. One day saw a high in the 80s. Strap in for a rollercoaster ride for the rest of the week on into the weekend.


Today's highs will be below average for the 5th day in a row. Cloud cover and a wind off the lake will keep us cool with highs in the lower to middle 50s.

The rollercoaster begins its climb tomorrow and peaks a hill on Thursday. Highs will warm to near 60° by Wednesday and into the 70s on Thursday. The fall begins on Friday. After a mild morning with temperatures in the 60s we will drop during the day into the 50s. We don't recover from that fall over the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 50s or lower 50s Saturday and Sunday.



Let's Talk Snow


One thing is for certain in terms of snow across the midwest over the coming days - there will be some. What is still up in the air is how much we may see here starting possibly later Sunday and into next week. The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast through Tuesday afternoon lays down heavy snow in total across portions of South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota and the Northwoods of Wisconsin. It even squeezes out up to 4" here. This is not written in stone and will no doubt change but does indicate a change towards a colder pattern this weekend and into next week.


This colder pattern could stick around into early November but may ease a bit by then. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from October 25th through the 29th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast keeps us outlooked for below average temperatures too but the probabilities of that drop just a bit for the period of October 27th through October 2nd.


Today will be the 5th day in a row with rain and the 6th of the last 9th day with at least a trace of rain. This more active pattern should continue through at least early next week. Best chances for rain will be late today into tonight, Wednesday night into early Thursday, Friday and then later Sunday into Monday. That last round of rain could also mix with or change to snow Sunday night into Monday followed by a chance of more snow on Tuesday. This is getting towards the tail end of this forecast where the confidence isn't quite there yet so stay tuned.



The 6-10 day precipitation probability forecast favors us for above average precipitation overall from October 25th through the 29th. The 8-14 day forecast indicates a change in the forecast with us favored for below average precipitation overall from October 27th through November 2nd.



Looking Real Long Range


October is now running 1.1° above average. Early indications for November is that it could also be milder than average. The Climate Prediction Center 30-day forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the month. Hard to get a fix on the precipitation for next month since it shows equal chances of above average or below average precipitation for us.



Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Cloudy & cool, rain developing mainly late High: 54


Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 47 High: 59


Thursday: AM shower or t-storm possible then partly sunny, breezy Low: 48 High: 73

Friday: Scattered showers & thunderstorms Low: 59 High: 64 (falling into 50s)


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 38 High: 50


Sunday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers possible late Low: 37 High: 49


Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance of light rain/snow Low: 38 High: 46

#ilwx

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