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  • Tim McGill

Spectacular Stretch Of October Weather

Back To The 70s


It doesn't get much better than this for early October. Plenty of sunshine through the weekend with temperatures at least 5° above average. Lovely fall leaf peeping weather for sure. Sunshine and a southwest wind should push highs in to the lower 70s today.



70s for highs should continue through the weekend into early next week. Highs Friday and Saturday could flirt with 80°.


The warmest day during this mild stretch will probably be Saturday. Temperatures across the midwest could be between 15° to 20° or more above average.



8 Out Of 9 Months This Year Above Average So Far


October didn't start off this mild. The first five days of the month were collectively nearly 7° below average. This week's warm up and the expected mild pattern seen in the longer range forecasts will probably insure October will end up above average overall. It's been a rather warm year here so far. The only month that has been below average this year was April. It came in -.6° below average.




The cool start to the month may end up being an anomaly. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecasts have us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from October 11th through the 19th.



The milder than average temperatures keep on coming well into the month according to the multi-model ensemble forecast. The vast majority of the country including the midwest is projected to be above average through the week ending October 23rd.



Mild & Mostly Dry Pattern


The chances for rain over the next ten days are slim to none. The GFS model suggests a few spotty showers early Sunday and then a chance for a few more early Tuesday. Other models keep us dry Sunday. The only decent chance for a little rain is probably Tuesday.



The longer range forecasts of precipitation probability suggests the best chance of rain in the near future could be in the second week of this month. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation overall from October 5th through the 11th. The 8-14 day forecast has a return to below average precipitation from October 13th through the 19th.




Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny, milder High: 72

Wednesday: Sunny, a bit breezy Low: 56 High: 74


Thursday: Sunny skies Low: 50 High: 70


Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy Low: 52 High: 78


Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 59 High: 77

Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 58 High: 75


Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 50 High: 71


#ilwx

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