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  • Tim McGill

Some Sun Between Storms

A more active pattern with some spring showers and thunderstorms is setting up for the next several days. Between the wet periods there will be breaks for some sunshine though. The highest threat of rain will be Saturday into early Sunday and then much of Tuesday into early Wednesday.

The GFS meteogram plot for O'Hare shows clusters of green bars representing rainfall. A few of those bars have a smaller red bar within that represents thunder during those periods. I have boxed periods where more sunshine is expected. This includes Sunday afternoon and much of Monday as well as mixed sun on Wednesday and more sunshine again on Thursday. The more blue at different levels means more sunshine.

The GFS total rainfall accumulation through the weekend targets northern Illinois and northwest Indiana with one to two inches of rainfall. Most of that rain will come late Friday night, through Saturday and into Saturday night. To add insult to injury, Saturday will be a raw day with gusty winds off the lake.

Gusts to near or above 30 mph Saturday off of a rather cool Lake Michigan means highs will only be in the middle 40s or nearly 20° below average. Waves along the shoreline in southern Lake Michigan 4 to 8 feet that could lead to some lakeshore flooding. Above left is the forecast temperatures and winds for Saturday afternoon from the GFS model and right of that is the wave forecast.

I continue to check the daily updates of the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook for temperature probability with the hope of seeing a signal that this cool April pattern may break for more milder temps. Latest forecasts though keep Chicago and an much of the Great Lakes and northeast favored for cooler than average temps overall through the start of May while the southwest sizzles.

Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy, spotty showers High: 57 (51 Lakefront)

Friday: Mostly cloudy Low: 42 High: 56 (48 Lakefront)

Saturday: Rain likely, breezy & cooler Low: 43 High: 47

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 38 High: 56 (49 Lakefront)

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 38 High: 63 (58 Lakefront)

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 49 High: 65 (62 Lakefront)

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, a few showers Low: 49 High: 60 (55 Lakefront)


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