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  • Tim McGill

Some 70s In Forecast But Some Snow Possible Too

Above Average Streak Continues


A wide range of weather in the forecast for the next seven days. More mild October weather the next couple of days followed by a dramatic drop in temperatures for the end of the week. Even colder by early next week with the possibility of our first fall snow.


First, the good news. Gusty southwest winds with some sunshine will push highs to near 70°.



Today will be our 8th straight day with above average temperatures. So far October is running 2° above average. Tomorrow will be the last of above average days for a while.

Highs fall into the 50s Thursday and stay cooler than average into next week.


The Big Chill


The GFS model has highs failing to get out of the 40s both Sunday and Monday. Monday could be the coldest day we've seen in about 6 months. Temperatures by Monday morning from the plains through most of the midwest and all the way south into Texas could be 15° to 25° colder than average.

First Fall Snow Of The Season?


It would be cold enough for snow by early next week if we had some moisture to work with. The last night's run of GFS model lays down an impressive swath of snow starting late Monday into Tuesday. The heaviest band has snow totals between 6 inches and nearly a foot. I caution that models are not in total agreement on this and a lot could change between now and then. The latest model run proves my point. This morning's GFS model run lowers snowfall amounts and shifts snow further north. Some models have more rain and less snow but most models do suggest it will be cold enough for at least some snow early next week. The graphic below compares the two models runs with last night's on the left and this morning's on the right. Stay tuned.



Cool To Cold Pattern For End Of Month


Once that colder air arrives it could stick around through the end of the month.

Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecasts have us outlooked with high probabilities of below average temperatures overall from October 18th through the 26th.



The long range precipitation probability forecasts are split. The 6-10 day day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation (rain and/or snow) from October 18th through the 22nd. The 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation from Octoer 20th through the 26th.



Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny, breezy (gusts to 35 mph) High: 70


Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy (gusts to 35 mph) Low: 47 High: 72


Thursday: AM spotty shower?, partly to mostly cloudy Low: 48 High: 56


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 54


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 58


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 44 High: 55

Monday: Mostly cloudy, rain late possibly mixing with snow Low: 39 High: 47

#ilwx

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