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  • Tim McGill

So Long 70s But Mild Pattern May Return

Last Look At Record Streak


Tuesday's record breaking high of 75° will be the last day of our incredible stretch of consecutive days with highs in the 70s. It was the 7th straight day with a high in the 70s. That is the longest streak of 70s for the month of November on record.


Here are high temperatures we saw at O'Hare during this November "heat wave":


74° on Wednesday, 11/4

71° on Thursday, 11/5 (tied record)

74° on Friday, 11/6

72° on Saturday, 11/7

76° on Sunday, 11/8 (broke record)

76° on Monday, 11/9 (broke record)

75° on Tuesday, 11/10 (broke record)




The drop in temperatures between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning is nearly 40°. The drop is even more dramatic when the wind chill is considered. It will feel almost 50° colder early today compared to yesterday afternoon. It will be just a bit breezy today. Winds will blow out of the west around 10 to 15 mph bringing in much colder air. Look for highs in the middle to upper 40s.



Strong southerly winds preceded the arrival of a cold front last night. The front itself produced thunderstorms that generated gusty winds. Here are some of the stronger gusts recorded on Tuesday:


79 mph Sugar Grove

78 mph Harrison-Dever Crib (Lake Michigan)

70 mph Poplar Grove

70 mph Kaneville

68 mph O'Hare

66 mph Midway

66 mph Hanover Park

65 mph Woodridge




The Storm Prediction Center's storm reports from Tuesday for damaging winds stretched from Missouri northward to Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan. There were also reports of large hail in Winnebago county.



Numerous November Records Fell


Record high temperatures tumbled for many states in the eastern half of the country Tuesday. Record fell from Florida to Maine and even all the way up to southeastern Canada.


In the last seven days there have been 1413 record highs set across our country and only 77 record lows. That means record highs have outpaced record lows by a ratio of more than 18 to 1.




Dramatic Drop Back To About Average


We fall to the upper 40s for highs today but that is right around average. Average highs for this date are around 51°. The warmest we get over the next seven days is the middle 50s on Sunday.


Chill Won't Last Long


There are strong signals in the longer range forecasts that we will rebound back to above average temperatures overall before too long. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 16th through the November 20th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has us outlooked for above average from November 18th through the 24th. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.






I shared the Multi Model Ensemble forecast in Monday's post. It is also signaling a relatively mild pattern. It has most of the eastern half of the country outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the end of November and start of December.




Mainly Dry Pattern


After nearly two weeks without rain it finally fell across the area on Tuesday. It looks like a return to a dry pattern though. Most of the next ten days should be dry. The best chance of rain during the period is Saturday into early Sunday. There is a slight chance that rain could mix with some light snow when it begins on Saturday.



Speaking of snow...


The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast run out through Thanksgiving afternoon suggests we won't have a white Thanksgiving. Snowfall is confined to areas either well north of Chicago or south and west. This is a long range forecast and will undoubtedly change between now and Thanksgiving so stay tuned for updates.


This dry pattern could extend right through late this month. Looking longer range, the 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation from November 16th through the November 20th. The longer range 8-14 day has us outlooked too for below average precipitation overall from November 18th through the 24th.







Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly sunny, a bit breezy, colder High: 48


Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 34 High: 54


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 43

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, light rain at times Low: 29 High: 48


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 43 High: 56


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 33 High: 45


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 43


#ilwx

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