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  • Tim McGill

Snow Mainly South Tonight & Bear Weather

Snowfall Deficit Drops

Our second messy mix of the week produced 1.3" of snowfall at O'Hare on Friday. That brings our winter snowfall total up to 4.1" so far which is 4.4" below average.

More light snow is coming tonight and continuing into early Sunday. Most of the snow will fall south of I-80 and into northern Indiana. More on that snowfall below.

Clouds will help keep our temperatures seasonably cold today. Look for highs in the lower 30s.

Snow will develop this evening and overspreading the area from southwest to northeast. The GFS model's precipitation meteogram for O'Hare shows a period of light snow overnight into early Sunday morning. Beyond that there isn't any major storms in sight. The GFS hints at a system that could impact the Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday but it is keeping any significant precipitation south and west of Chicago for now.

Mild Middle Of The Week

December ended up 5.2° above average. We should stay above average for the next several days with the Wednesday being the warmest day of this upcoming week. The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for Thursday morning has us nearly 20° above average. There is no Arctic air in sight on this map with nearly the entire country forecast to be above average.

A Swath Of Light Snow

The GFS model lays down up to nearly an inch and a half of snow tonight south of the city and into northern Indiana. Chicago itself could see around a half inch to an inch in total. No snow is forecast for far northern or northwestern suburbs.

The NAM model squeezes out a little more snow tonight compared to the GFS model. The biggest difference is for our far southern suburbs and into northern Indiana where two to three inches of snow is possible.

I think an inch or two is possible mainly south of I-80 with a few spots possibly seeing up to three inches.

Football Forecast

Not exactly what we would call "Bear Weather" for Sunday's game at Soldier Field. The game has been pushed back from a noon start to a 3:25 start. It will be a bit above average for early January come kickoff with a temperature around 34° and a west, southwest wind around 9 to 14 mph. That would mean wind chills in the middle to upper 20s during the game. Cloud cover is predicted to decrease a bit by the afternoon so there could be some peeks of sun.

"Mild" Pattern Signal Weakens

The longer range temperature probabilities forecasts still have us outlooked for above average temperatures overall but the signal isn't quite as strong compared to previous forecasts. The long range models continue to favor us for above average temperatures into the middle of January. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has the northern tier of the country outlooked for average temperatures overall from January 7th through January 11th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast continues to favor us for above average temperatures overall during the period from January 9th through January 15th too but the probabilities have dropped and Chicago is just barely included.

Precip Pattern Shift

The last several long range precipitation probabilities forecasts had been favoring us for a more active pattern but the latest forecasts are much drier. The 6-10 day forecast from January 7th through January 11th has us outlooked for below average precipitation. The 8-14 day forecast from January 9th through the 15th also has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall too.

Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Cloudy & seasonably cold High: 34

Sunday: A.M. light snow, mostly cloudy Low: 28 High: 37

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 25 High: 38

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 26 High: 37

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy Low: 29 High: 40

Thursday: Mostly cloudy Low: 30 High: 39

Friday: Mostly cloudy Low: 28 High: 36



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