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  • Tim McGill

Severe Storms Could Close Out The Week

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will pass through today at times with the strongest storms expected late this afternoon into tonight. Timing is tricky but it appears the time frame from about 5 pm to midnight is most favorable for severe weather. A combination of a strong low-level jet stream, unstable vertical temperature profile and strong wind shear is setting us up for some severe storms late today and into tonight especially.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in an area of "enhanced" risk for severe weather. That is third risk category level of five possible levels. Enhanced risk means numerous severe storms possible. Those storms would be more persistent and/or widespread with a few intense. Damaging winds would be the most likely form of severe weather with these storms but large hail and locally heavy downpours are possible too. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out either.

While late today and tonight carry the greatest chance of rain this weekend there will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and possibly a few Sunday. The GFS total precipitation forecast through early Sunday morning is calling for an inch to two inches of rain for the area with up to nearly three inches north of the city near the Wisconsin border.

Heat and humidity will fuel the storms today. High temperatures should climb into the upper 80s but if more sun peeks out more than expected, we would see a few spots hit 90°. O'Hare is running nearly 5° above average so far this month with only 5 of 25 days below average.

So after a stormy period today into Saturday the next unsettled period would be late Thursday into Friday next week. Most of Sunday through early Thursday should be dry and warm. A spotty or scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible most days but it should be mainly dry.

The warmer than average pattern could carry right into July. The 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast keeps us outlooked for above average temperatures through July 9th.

Here is my 7 day forecast: Today: Partly sunny, periods of showers/t-storms (some strong late) High: 89 Saturday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 72 High: 84 (78 Lakefront) Sunday: Partly sunny, spotty shower/t-storm possible Low: 70 High: 85 (78 Lakefront) Monday: Partly sunny, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 67 High: 88 (78 Lakefront) Tuesday: Partly cloudy, spotty shower or t-storm? Low: 68 High: 88 (78 Lakefront) Wednesday: Partly cloudy, spotty shower or t-storm? Low: 69 High: 88 (81 Lakefront) Thursday: Partly cloudy, spotty shower or t-storm? Low: 69 High: 89 (82 Lakefront) #ilwx


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