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  • Tim McGill

Putting A Dent In The Drought

After our warmest summer on record it is really starting to feel like fall. Today through Thursday will see highs only in the 60s. It will be the coolest three day stretch we have seen in nearly 4 months. The last time it has been this cool for three days in a row was the middle of May.


A brisk wind off the lake will keep us cooler than average today (average high in the upper 70s). The HRRR model shows a range of temperatures this afternoon from as cool as the 50s well northwest of the city to the upper 60s in northwest Indiana.



We might need to get used to this cooler pattern for the next couple of weeks. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from September 13th through the 21st.



September is starting off soggy after two months in a row with rainfall well below average. The lack of rainfall in July and August saw the development of a moderate drought here over the past few weeks. Rainfall is now above average for the start of September thanks to five of the first eight days of the month seeing some rain.


Widespread rain will soak the ground early today then taper to more scattered showers. Only spotty showers possible then tomorrow and Thursday before a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday night.



We need to enjoy the rain while we can because the longer range forecasts show a return to a more dry pattern could be coming. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability forecasts have us outlooked for below average precipitation overall from September 13th through the 21st.



Gusty northeast winds will pose problems for Lake Michigan's shoreline here through Wednesday morning. Those winds will whip up waves as big as 8 to 11 feet today and create strong rip currents with a beach hazards statement in effect until 3 am Wednesday. A lakeshore flood advisory is in effect until 10 am Wednesday morning.


The National Weather Service says the impacts could be significant.


The large waves combined with record high lake levels could exacerbate already significant beach and shoreline erosion sustained over the past several months. Typical flood prone locations will likely experience flooding. Onlookers may be swept into the lake by the large waves.




Here is my 7 day forecast:

Beach hazards statement until 3 AM Wednesday Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 AM Wednesday

Today: Rain early then scattered showers (isolated t-storm possible), breezy High: 67

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, spotty shower possible Low: 60 High: 65 Thursday: Mostly cloudy Low: 57 High: 68 Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 57 High: 72 Saturday: Partly cloudy, sct. showers (t-storm possible) late Low: 59 High: 76 Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 61 High: 76 Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 57 High: 73 #ilwx

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