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  • Tim McGill

Passing The Halfway Mark Of Summer

Near 90° today but with a lot less humidity that so often has accompanied hot summer days this year. The HRRR model shows upper 80s for highs this afternoon. This will probably be the warmest day we'll see at least through early next week as a cooler pattern will kick in by the end of the week. It will be a dramatic shift from what to this point has been a very warm summer. 38 of the past 42 days have seen temperatures above average. During that six week stretch only one day has been below average (three have been right at average). July is now 5.5° above average.

After oppressive levels of humidity this past week today should feel more comfortable. Dew points will drop into the upper 50s. Humidity levels will increase a bit on Wednesday as dew points slide back into the 60s.

Only a slight chance for a pop up shower or thunderstorm today but rain chances ramp up by Wednesday afternoon. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible this weekend but most of Saturday and Sunday should be dry. More rain possible on Monday.


Our shift to a cooler pattern comes Friday. Highs for some areas might not get out of the 70s and highs this weekend will stay mainly in the upper 70s to near 80°. The longer range forecast continues to cool us off for the first part of August and even beyond. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has the Chicago area outlooked for below average temperatures overall for the first week of August and the 8-14 day us barely in the lowest probability for temperatures above average.

Looking even longer range the consistent signal continues for a shift to even cooler air possible for the week ending on August 14th. The NCEP/GEFS temperature anomaly forecast has the coolest anomalies for the period centered directly over the midwest.

So if you are a fan of cooler weather then this is great news, at least for now. Historically we have passed the warmest part of summer for Chicago. Our hottest high temperatures on average occur during the week of July 10th through the 15th. It doesn't mean it is all downhill from here since forecasts for the end of summer still call for above average temperatures overall from August through September. Yesterday's blog touched on this.


Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Sunny start then partly cloudy High: 89


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny, isolated t-storm possible Low: 68 High: 86


Thursday: Mostly cloudy, sct. shower/t-storms (more south) Low: 67 High: 81


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 64 High: 79


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, spotty shower/t-storm possible Low: 62 High: 79


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 63 High: 78


Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 68 High: 87

#ilwx

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