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  • Tim McGill

One For The Record Books

70s Streak Continues


Today will be the fourth day in a row with a high of 70° or warmer. Tomorrow will be the fifth. It has been almost 70 years since we have had a streak of 70° days that long. If we hit 70° or more on Monday we will stretch the streak to six straight days and that has never happened. I think the streak will end at seven straight days on Tuesday. That is unprecedented warmth for November.



Here are some of the upcoming record highs that we may approach or even beat:


Saturday's record high: 75° My forecast high: 74°

Sunday's record high: 73° My forecast high: 74°

Monday's record high: 74° My forecast high: 75°

Tuesday's record high: 71° My forecast high: 71°


My forecast is calling for three of the next four days to either tie or break a record. Sunday night's lows are forecast to drop into the upper 50s or lower 60s. Those lows will be warmer than the average highs for this time of year.


We started our Saturday a bit milder compared to yesterday which should help boost today's highs a degree or two over Friday's highs. Sunny skies a southwest breeze will push our highs into the lower 70s. That is about 20° above average.




Long Term Trend


In a previous post mentioned how summer is lingering more into fall. Will this record breaking November weather become more common place in the future? Chicago has seen a steady warming trend since the 1980s as seen on the bar graph below. I mentioned yesterday that over the past year record highs have outpaced record lows by a nearly two to one margin.




Record breaking or near record breaking November warmth yesterday stretched from the southwest through the Great Lakes and all the way to New England. The Midwest set the most record highs on Friday. 70s were seen as far north as the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Marquette saw a record breaking 75° yesterday which broke their old record by 4°.



70s should continue through Tuesday then we will see a fairly dramatic drop in temperatures. We actually fall back to around average for the remainder of next week starting on Wednesday with highs near 50°.




A Country Divided


The GFS model temperature anomaly forecast for Monday continues to show "red states" for the eastern half of the country and "blue states" for the western half. The red states will be around 10° to 30° above average while the blue states will be around 10° to 20° below average.



Cooling Off But Still "Mild" Well Into November


While we will cool down for the end of next week and even dip a bit below average, the longer range forecasts keep us above average overall past the middle of the month. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 12th through the November 16th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us above average too from November 14th through the 20th.




Can It Carry Over Into December?


The even longer range week 3-4 outlook has the Midwest and most of the country outlooked above average overall all the way into the start of December. The only part of the country that isn't expected to be above average is most of California along with portions of Nevada and Arizona. They have equal chances of being above or below average overall from November 21st through December 4th.




High & Dry Through Monday


Today will be the 11th straight day without a drop of rain here. Our next good chance of showers is late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out then too.


The GFS model precipitation accumulation forecast through next Saturday shows rainfall expected at some point between now and then everywhere on this map. We could see about a half inch to three quarters of an inch total here with most of that coming either early Wednesday or next Friday.



The longer range precipitation probability forecasts continue to favor us slightly for above average precipitation. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation from November 12th through the November 16th. The longer range 8-14 day continues that trend for above average rainfall from November 14th through November 20th. It's not a particularly strong signal but does tip the scales slightly towards above average precipitation overall.





Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Sunny, mild, a bit breezy High: 74

Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 74


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 60 High: 75


Tuesday: Partly/mostly cloudy, chance of showers late Low: 61 High: 71


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 38 High: 50


Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 38 High: 52


Friday: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers Low: 36 High: 48


#ilwx

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