November "Heat Wave" Could End With A Bang
Updated: Nov 11, 2020
Incredible November Numbers
Monday's high of 76° set another record for the month. We beat the old record for the date by 2°. It was the second straight day to set a record high. It was also the sixth straight day with a high in the 70s. That is the longest streak of 70° days we have ever seen in November. Three of those six days set records. We are now 12.6° above average for the month.
Gusts southwest winds will help stretch our streak of 70s one more day on this Tuesday. Highs should reach into the lower 70s. It will be the seventh straight day of 70s which will mark yet a new record. Highs will be between 20° to 25° above average. The record high for today's date is 71° and is certainly within reach.
Strong Storms Possible Here, Snow To Our West
70s here today but a state or two away they are dealing with wintry weather. Eight states from Kansas to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan have winter weather advisories in effect. Ice storm warnings have been posted for parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. Winter storm warnings are up for southern Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin.
A swath of heavier snow is possible from near the twin cities through the Northwoods of Wisconsin on into the UP. Four to eight inches of snow is possible in the hardest hit areas according to the GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast.
Winter weather just to our west today and tonight but it will seem more like spring here. Some strong and possibly even severe thunderstorms possible late today into early tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the city and northern Illinois in the slight risk category for severe storms. A strong cold front combined with sufficient wind shear could produce a line of strong storms capable of damaging winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out either.
The marginal risk is on the low end of the various risk categories used by the SPC. The slight risk for our northwest suburbs is level two out of five risk levels and means scattered severe storms are expected. They should be short-lived and isolated.
Record books were rewritten not just here on Monday but for several locations. From Texas to Florida and northward to Michigan and Maine, several records fell yesterday. The highest number of new records was found in the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.
Nature's Leaf Blower
As I mentioned yesterday, to get record highs this time of year it is a struggle to count on sunshine alone. Today's sunshine will be limited to a few peeks here and there. Gusty southerly winds will advect warm air from the south into Illinois. A wind advisory is in effect from noon until 10 pm tonight. Watch for winds to gust over 40 mph today and they could be significantly stronger with thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, those winds will shift more to the west and northwest tonight after a strong cold front crosses through the air. We will drop about 20° to 25° between today and tomorrow. Highs fall into the 40s on Veteran's Day and we stay in the 40s and 50s for highs right through the weekend. While it will be a dramatic drop, those highs are about average for this time of year.
"Mild" Pattern Returns?
It appears our temperatures might rebound back above average fairly quickly. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 15th through the November 19th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has us outlooked for above average from November 17th through the 23rd. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.
The experimental Multi Model Ensemble forecast keeps the relatively mild air coming right into the first few days of December. Keep in mind that doesn't rule out occasional colder days but just means our temperatures should be above average overall during the period.
We finally get some real rain after nearly two weeks of dry weather. Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms is late today into early tonight. After that, more light rain possible later Saturday. As of Monday we are nearly an inch of rain below average for November.
Looking longer range, the 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation from November 15th through the November 19th. The longer range 8-14 day has us outlooked for above average precipitation overall from November 17th through the 23rd.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers/t-storms (some strong), windy High: 72
Wednesday: Sunny & much cooler Low: 36 High: 48
Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 55
Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 35 High: 46
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, light rain at times Low: 33 High: 48
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, pm rain Low: 40 High: 53
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 35 High: 47