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  • Tim McGill

Not Just Nice For November But Possibly Unprecedented Warmth

70s Streak Continues


Wednesday we tied the record high of 74° at O'Hare that went back to 1978. Thursday we had a high of 71°. While that wasn't a record it was still nearly 20° above average for the day. So today will be the third straight day with a high of 70° or warmer. My forecast is calling for that streak to continue through Tuesday. That would mean a record breaking seven straight days in November with highs 70° or warmer.



Here are some of the upcoming record highs that we may approach or even beat:


Today's record high: 75° My forecast high: 72°

Saturday's record high: 75° My forecast high: 73°

Sunday's record high: 73° My forecast high: 74°

Monday's record high: 74° My forecast high: 75°

Tuesday's record high: 71° My forecast high: 71°


My forecast is calling for three of the next five days to either tie or break a record.


We will still plenty of sunshine today with an occasional high thin cloud. That sunshine and a southwest breeze will push highs to and above 70° here.



Models are in relatively good agreement that we will ride this warm November wave right through Tuesday. The drop in temperatures from Tuesday into Wednesday looks impressive but we actually fall to about average with a high near 50° by then.



Red & Blue States


The GFS model continues to show a divided country on Monday with nearly half of the country well above average and the other half well below. We are among the red or warm states. Highs are forecast to be around 10° to almost 30° above average from Michigan to Texas and most points east.



Record Highs Outpacing Record Lows


Record breaking or near record breaking November weather was noted yesterday in the desert southwest and west coast and from the Great Basin to the Great Lakes. Phoenix had a record high of 99° degrees Thursday. It was not only the record high for that date but the hottest day ever recorded during the month of November. Green Bay set a record high of 71°.

As our climate continues to warm, record high temperatures are outpacing record low temperatures. We have seen nearly twice as many high temperature records compared to low temperature records in the past year.




Above Average Overall Through Middle Of Month


There will be some days that fall back below average in the coming weeks but the signal remains fairly strong that overall, we should be above average for the next two weeks. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 11th through the November 15th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us above average too from November 13th through the 19th. The area of the country with probabilities that favor above average temperatures actually grows and expands westward toward the middle of this month.




High & Dry Through Monday


Today marks the tenth straight day without any rain. The next decent chance of rain doesn't arrive until late Tuesday. There could even be a few rumbles of thunder Tuesday night into early Wednesday when a cold front come through and brings us back to reality.




The GFS model precipitation accumulation forecast through Tuesday afternoon only calls for a trace of rain here. There are some impressive numbers in parts of Wisconsin and Iowa that suggest more than two inches of rain could fall there. We aren't expecting anything that heavy when the front finally arrives here.



The longer range precipitation probability forecasts favor us slightly for above average precipitation. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation from November 11th through the November 15th. The longer range 8-14 day continues that trend for above average rainfall from November 13th through November 19th. Those probabilities are on the lower end though with higher probabilities confined to the Pacific Northwest during the period.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Sunny, mild & pleasant High: 72


Saturday: Sunny skies Low: 52 High: 73

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 74


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 59 High: 75


Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers late Low: 61 High: 71


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 41 High: 50


Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 38 High: 52


#ilwx

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