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  • Tim McGill

Not As Scary This Halloween As Last Year

What A Difference A Year Makes


The forecast isn't frightening for this Halloween but a year ago the the amount of snow that fell was scary. Record breaking snow came down not only on October 31st but the day before Halloween as well. 1.2" fell on 10/30/19 and 3.4" fell on 10/31/19, both record amounts for their respective dates. We ended up with 4.6" of snow for the month of October last year which is the second snowiest October on record.


The graphics below show the snowfall that fell on the 30th and 31st last year.


The warmest Halloween on record was in 1950 when the high hit 84°. The coldest was way back in 1873 when the high only made it to 31°. This Halloween will be just about average with a high in the middle to upper 50s. It will be a bit breezy though so it might feel a touch colder.



Colder Than Average Again Today


Today's temperatures will be below average for the seventh straight day. Highs today should top out in the lower to middle 40s. Average highs for the end of October are around 57°.



The winds will be strong at times this weekend. Southerly winds on Saturday will gust over 35 mph towards the evening. The winds will shift to the northwest early Sunday morning as colder air comes crashing in behind a cold front. Winds on Sunday will gust to near 40 mph. The combination of colder temperatures on Sunday (highs near 40°) and gusty winds will make it feel like the 20s most of the day.




Warming Up For First Week Of November


Survive Sunday's cold wind chills and you'll be rewarded with a big warm up next week. Highs by Wednesday should be into the 60s and those 60s could stick around right through next weekend.


The temperature anomaly map for a week from Friday looks like it is on fire. Highs across the midwest will be 15° to 25° be average. Most of the country aside from the Pacific Northwest will be well above average by the end of next week.




Time For A Car Wash


We are looking at a stretch of several dry days coming up. There is a very small chance for a spotty shower late Saturday evening as a strong cold front approaches and the GFS model tries to squeeze out a slight chance for some sprinkles Sunday but I don't think that is going to happen. Most of the next ten days should feature plenty of sunshine.



The longer range forecasts keep us drier than average into the first week of November. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation from November 4th through the November 8th. The longer range 8-14 day begins to bring back more moisture with the midwest outlooked for above average precipitation from November 6th through November 12th.





Relatively Mild Well Into Next Month


The longer range forecasts continue to suggest most of November could be above average. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 4th through the November 8th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has outlooked for above average overall from November 6th through the 12th.



The even longer range experimental multi-ensemble model forecasts keep that mild pattern coming through the second and third weeks of November. The forecasts for the week ending November 13th and the week ending November 20th have us outlooked above average temperatures too.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly sunny High: 45

Saturday: Sunny & milder, becoming windy Low: 33 High: 55


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy & colder Low: 34 High: 40

Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 48


Tuesday: Mostly sunny Low: 35 High: 57


Wednesday: Mostly sunny Low: 42 High: 63


Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 48 High: 65


#ilwx

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