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  • Tim McGill

No Significant Snow In Sight

A Bit Less Blustery Today



The last day of November was the coldest of the month and the coldest day we have seen since late March. Monday's high of 37° was the chilliest since March 22 when we also had a high of 37°. This current cold snap is the coldest couple of days we've experienced in a little over eight months.


Today's highs will be about 3° to 4° below average. Look for highs today in the middle 30s again. While the winds have subsided a bit, it will still be breezy and that means it will feel more like the teens and twenties throughout the day. Yesterday's wind gusts were around 35 mph and today's will be closer to 25 mph.



Scarce Snowfall


Most of the lake effect snow that fell yesterday was focused on northern Indiana where a few spots picked up an inch or two. A dusting was reported in a few spots near the lakefront in Illinois. O'Hare officially picked up a trace of snow on Monday.


I ran out both the the GFS model and the the European model snowfall accumulation through the next two weeks and it's bad news for snow lovers.


The GFS model squeezes out another round of lake effect snow in north central Indiana with a light covering of snow in Illinois sometime around a week from Sunday but most of us will see at most a tenth of an inch of snow in total over the next fifteen days.



The European model shows even less snowfall during the period. It squeezes out a tenth of an inch along the Illinois shoreline and a little more than half an inch in northern Indiana in total over the next two weeks.


ECMWF Snowfall Accumulation Forecast Through The Evening Of December 16th (Pivotal Weather)


Decent Start To December


Another day with highs in the 30s but most of the next seven days will be around average or a bit above. Average highs slip from 40° to the upper 30s starting Wednesday. No signs of the polar vortex invading any time soon.


The longer range temperature probability forecasts continue to favor us for above average temperatures overall through the middle of the month. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast still has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from December 6th through December 10th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast from December 8th through the 14th also has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall too.



The even longer range experimental multi-model ensemble keeps us near normal for the week ending December 18th and above normal for the week ending on Christmas Day.




Dry December Pattern


The longer range precipitation probabilities continues to keep us drier than average into the middle of the month. The 6-10 day forecast from December 6th through December 10th has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall. Same story for 8-14 day forecast that covers the period of December 8th through December 14th. Keep dreaming of that white Christmas because right now the odds are not in its favor.


Here is my 7 day forecast:


Winter Storm Warning For LaPorte County Until 8 AM Tuesday


Today: Becoming mostly sunny, a bit breezy High: 37


Wednesday: Sunny skies, not as cold Low: 23 High: 46

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 26 High: 45


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 43


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 43


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 39

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 31 High: 38


#ilwx

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