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  • Tim McGill

Nice November Weather Blows In

Warmer But More Wind Too

Highs today will soar into the 60s on strong southwest winds. Today's temperatures will be around 20° above average. This will be the warmest day we have seen in a little over a week.


Now the bad news. Those southwest winds will gust to near 45 mph at times today. A wind advisory is in effect for most areas from 9 AM until 4 PM today. Gusts will subside this evening but it will still be blustery. Watch for wind gusts early tonight around 30 mph. The combination of those gusty winds and dry conditions means "elevated to briefly critical fire danger is expected again today" according to the National Weather Service.


Our highs fall nearly 20° between today and next Monday. This weekend's highs fall back into the middle 40s which is around average for this time of year. Monday's highs near 40° are a bit below average. By the middle of next week temperatures start to rebound a bit with highs above average again by Wednesday. That warming trend should continue through Thanksgiving.



A Thanksgiving Thaw


Models have been consistently calling for a relatively mild Thanksgiving. The latest forecast for next Thursday is no different. The average high for that date is 43°. The GFS model shows highs about 7° to 8° above average. That would mean highs at least in the lower 50s. The forecasts for beyond Thanksgiving continue to favor us for above average temperatures too.




Plenty Of Red & Orange States


Just like in yesterday's post both longer range temperature probability forecasts have no blue color on the map. The entire lower 48 is forecast for normal or above average temperatures overall through Thanksgiving week into early December. The vast majority of country is favored for above average temperatures. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures from November 24th through the 28th. The probabilities are a little higher in the 8-14 day forecast from November 26th through the December 2nd. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.





Not Quite As Wet This Weekend


Dry weather will prevail through the end of the week. The GFS model has removed the rain it was calling for on Saturday in previous model runs. Rain is still in Sunday's forecast but it will be light. There is a chance early in the day it could mix with some light snow north and west of the city but no significant snow expected. The best chance of rain comes late next Tuesday into Wednesday.




Dreaming Of A White Thanksgiving?


The European model gives hope for a white holiday next week. It squeezes out just over two inches of snow across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast shows some light accumulation early Sunday but even if that did happen, it would melt with the milder temperatures that model is forecast for next week. So the models continue to offer different solutions for snow. The GFS is probably the model of choice here so don't get out the shovels just yet. It's still early and no doubt these forecasts will change.




The longer range precipitation probabilities start off favoring us for above average precipitation overall then dry things out for the final few days of November and the start of December. The 6-10 day forecast from November 24th through November 28th has us outlooked for above average precipitation overall . The even longer range 8-14 day forecast from November 26th through the December 2nd has us favored for below average precipitation overall.






Here is my 7 day forecast:


Wind advisory from 9 am until 4 pm today.


Today: Partly/mostly cloudy, milder & windy (gusts to 45 mph) High: 65

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 47 High: 59


Saturday: Mostly cloudy, colder Low: 36 High: 47


Sunday: Cloudy, on & off light rain Low: 34 High: 46


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 28 High: 41


Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance of light rain Low: 30 High: 44


Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, on & off rain Low: 32 High: 49


#ilwx

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