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  • Tim McGill

Nice First Week Of November

Starting A New Streak


Today should be the 10th day in a row with below average temperatures. We start a new streak Tuesday of days with above average temperatures. That streak should stretch to at least six days in a row.


Today is more of a transition day. After wind chills on Sunday in the teens and twenties, today we should climb to about 50°. Notice the winds today will be blowing out of the west/southwest. That warmer wind direction will prevail through the weekend.




Gusty Winds To Start Off The Week


Winds gusted to 51 mph at O'Hare on Sunday and then diminished overnight into this Monday morning. Winds will pick back up today and occasionally gust to near 35 mph. Winds diminish a bit Tuesday but it will still be just a bit breezy with occasional gusts over 20 mph.




Highs Headed Uphill


Most of the next seven days will have highs in the 60s and a few days we will flirt with 70°. Average highs at the beginning of the week are around 55° and average highs by the end of the weekend are around 52°. So after today's highs that will be about 5° below average, highs the next six days will be between 5° to almost 18° above average. .



A lot of red on the temperature anomaly forecast for Friday. The GFS model has temperatures across most of the Midwest about 15° to 25° above average by Friday afternoon. The only portion of the country below average is the northern Rockies and the west coast.


Mild Through Middle Of Month


The longer range forecasts continue to keep the relatively mild air coming into the middle of this month. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 7th through the November 11th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast hints at a possible pattern change coming after that. An expanding area of blue representing probabilities of below average temperatures overall starts to slide eastward towards Chicago during the period of November 9th through the 15th. That might be signaling a trend towards a colder than average pattern later this month.



The longer range experimental multi-ensemble model forecasts has the midwest outlooked to stay above average overall through nearly the end of November. Both of the forecasts for the week ending November 13th and the week ending November 20th have us favored for above temperatures overall.



Grab The Shades


Sunglasses are a must this week. Plenty of sunshine today and all the way through at least Saturday. Our next chance of rain doesn't come until Monday. If you need a car wash, today is the day to get it.



We flip to a more moist pattern after this week. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation from November 7th through the November 11th. The longer range 8-14 day continues that trend for a moist midwest from November 9th through November 15th.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly sunny, blustery (gusts to 35 mph) High: 51


Tuesday: Sunny & milder Low: 38 High: 62


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 47 High: 64


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 50 High: 65


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 50 High: 68


Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 51 High: 66

Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 67


#ilwx

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