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  • Tim McGill

Near Record Breaking November Warmth

More Weather Whiplash


After ten straight days with below average temperatures we bounced back above average on Tuesday with a high of 69° at O'Hare. We are looking at an impressive streak of above average days now that could last at least eight days.


Sunshine and breezy southwest winds should push our highs today into the lower 70s or 20° above average. The record high for today is 74°. This will not be the last time we flirt with record highs over the next several days.



Highs should stay well above average through Tuesday next week. Highs will be around 15° to 20° above average through that period. Other record highs that are within reach include Sunday's 73°, Monday's 74° and Tuesday's 71°. However, the further the forecast goes out, the more uncertainty. So the weekend warmth is more assured than Monday and Tuesday's continuation of that warmth.




The GFS model keeps us warm into the start of next week. The temperature anomaly forecast has most of the Midwest 20° to 26° above average. That means highs at least in the lower 70s. Cooler air expands eastward into the plains and it is only a matter of time before it arrives here. For now though, this model holds it off through the start of next week.



A Case Of The Blues & The Reds


The longer range forecasts suggest this mild to warm pattern may be losing its grip a bit by the middle of the month. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 9th through the November 13th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us above average too but the probabilities aren't as strong. The red hues on the map are getting lighter through time. At the same time though the blues on the map are getting lighter which means the probabilities of colder than average temperatures to our west are dropping too. Future forecasts will give us a better idea of how this sorts out by the end of the month.



The even longer range Multi-Model Ensemble does keep the mild pattern coming through almost the end of the month. The forecasts for the week ending November 20th and the week ending November 27th have us outlooked for above average temperatures.





No Need For An Umbrella For Now


The next decent threat of rain has been pushed back until late Tuesday next week. The GFS model keeps us dry through the weekend. Not only that, the cloud cover forecasts suggests plenty of sunshine each day as well.



The total precipitation accumulation forecast from the GFS model through Monday afternoon only spits out a trace of rain here in total through the next six days.



There has been a consistent signal from the longer range precipitation probability forecasts that this dry pattern will end by the middle of the month. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation from November 9th through the November 13th. The longer range 8-14 day continues that trend for a moist Midwest from November 11th through November 17th but the probabilities drop a bit.





Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Sunny, mild & breezy High: 72


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 52 High: 69


Friday: Sunny skies Low: 48 High: 70


Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 52 High: 70

Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 72


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 55 High: 70


Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance of rain late Low: 52 High: 66


#ilwx

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