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  • Tim McGill

More Wind But Warming Up

Back Above Average


A warm up is underway but it comes with some gusty winds the next few days.


Tuesday's high of 42° was 5° below average and it was just the 6th day this month with below average temperatures. We started our Wednesday off with plenty of sunshine and that along with an eventually robust south breeze will get us back above average. Here are a couple of shots of the city at dawn today.




Highs today should climb to near 50°. The HRRR model below is probably a couple of degrees too cool. Average highs for this date are around 47°. A little warmer on this Wednesday but also windier.



Gusts today could reach 35 mph. Tomorrow's winds will be even stronger. Look for gusts on Thursday near 40 mph or even higher. Both today and tomorrow the winds are blowing from a warmer direction. They will be out of the south today and then shift more to the southwest tomorrow. The result is a warm up through Thursday with highs tomorrow soaring into the 60s or around 15° above average.


We stay above average on Friday but cool off a bit. Highs will be well into the 50s. We fall into the 40s for highs Saturday and stay there through at least Tuesday next week.



Thankful For A Mild Thanksgiving?


The long range forecast for Thanksgiving is calling for a relatively mild holiday. The average high for that date is 43°. The GFS model is suggesting our highs will climb to near 50°. This has been consistent with the longer range temperature probability forecasts lately calling for a milder than average pattern overall through the end of the month into early December.



Still Strong Signal For Mild End To Month


The persistent pattern outlook the past several days has been for relatively mild temperatures. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast once again has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall. This covers the period from November 23rd through the 27th. The signal is a bit stronger in the 8-14 day forecast from November 25th through the December 1st. Notice that no part of the lower 48 is outlooked for below average temperatures overall during either period. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.





Wet Weekend At Times


We should close the work week out dry but the timing on rain isn't good for this weekend. While it might not be a washout there is a good chance for rain starting later Saturday and continuing on and off into Sunday. Models differ on whether some of that could turn to snow early Sunday morning. I'm leaning towards mostly rain with possible a brief rain and snow mix early Sunday in areas well northwest of the city.




Speaking Of Snow


The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast is now suggesting some minor accumulation late Saturday night into early Sunday in areas well north and west of the city. The forecast just below is run out through the weekend after Thanksgiving. So beyond this initial chance for snow the pickings are slim. There is more hope for some white stuff if you buy into the European model.



The European model is spitting out more snowfall between now and Thanksgiving than our American counterpart. The forecast below is for total snowfall between now and Thanksgiving evening. The snow would come later Tuesday into Wednesday next week with very little in the city itself but a few inches outside of downtown. Hard for me to put much stock into this solution though. I'm sticking with the GFS with little or no snow between now and the holiday. It's early and a lot can change so stay tuned.



The longer range precipitation probabilities forecasts flip flop from low probabilities favoring above average precipitation to low probabilities favoring below average precipitation. The 6-10 day forecast from November 23rd through November 27th has us outlooked for above average precipitation overall . The even longer range 8-14 day forecast from November 25th through the December 1st has a drier forecast.





Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly sunny, colder & blustery (gusts to 35 mph) High: 51


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy (gusts to 40 mph) Low: 42 High: 64

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 47 High: 59


Saturday: Cloudy, light rain mainly late Low: 40 High: 47


Sunday: Cloudy, on & off light rain Low: 37 High: 46


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 33 High: 45


Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance of light rain Low: 32 High: 47


#ilwx

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