More 80s Then Cooler & Wet Week Coming
Friday was the first day with below average temperatures in just over a month. Next week will feature several days below average along with a shift to a wetter pattern. It will be an abrupt pattern change after our predominantly warm & dry summer. The rain will help put a dent in our drought that deepened over the last couple of weeks. There is a chance of rain starting Sunday and then every day next week.
Today's highs will be right around average. We should reach into the upper 70s to 80°.
There will be plenty of opportunities for rain starting Sunday and through next week. The best
chances will be later Sunday, Tuesday into Wednesday and then later Friday into Saturday.
The Storm Prediction Center has us in the slight risk area for severe weather on Sunday. The greatest threat would be damaging winds and large hail. The timing is tricky but the morning hours and then later in the evening are the most favored time periods for strong storms. A slight risk means scattered severe storms are possible that would "be short-lived and/or not widespread, isolated intense storms".
Our rainfall deficit is up to 5.48" since July 1st. I blogged yesterday about the area in northern Illinois in a moderate drought is now about six times bigger than it was a week ago according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The GFS model precipitation accumulation forecast has between two to four inches of rain in total between Sunday and next Saturday afternoon across the northern part of the state.
Looking longer range the 6-10 day precipitation probability forecast has us just barely outlooked for above average precipitation from September 10th through 14th. The 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation from September 12th through the 18th.
A cooler pattern shift will accompany the more active precipitation pattern. The 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from September 10th through the 18th. If the cool pattern continues through the end of the month it could be the first month with below average temperatures overall since April.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Mostly sunny, breezy High: 80
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms early & late Low: 63 High: 82
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 68 High: 78
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, on & off showers, t-storm possible Low: 60 High: 67
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, on & off showers Low: 58 High: 71
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers Low: 58 High: 69
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers possible Low: 58 High: 74