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  • Tim McGill

Milder Pattern Possible Next Month

First Snow Of Season Right On Schedule


We got our first official snow of the season on Monday. O'Hare reported a trace. Wet snow stuck mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. The average date of the first trace of snow is October 30th so this was nearly right on schedule. We started our week off today with some light snow. I mentioned yesterday that there would be no need for a shovel but that wasn't the case with last year's first snowfall in October. 1.2" of snow fell on October 30th last year to break a record for the date. An additional 3.4" fell the following day to set a record for Halloween.


There may be some patches of light rain and snow early today but beyond that, the prospects for more snow diminish as we warm up a bit this week and into the weekend. Today will be chilly with highs for the fourth straight day in the 40s or even colder. Yesterday's high at O'Hare only made it to 39°. Monday was the coldest day in just over eight months. Today won't be quite as chilly but close. Look for highs today in the lower 40s.



Average highs this time of year are right around 58°. After todays our highs should be 50° or warmer for most of the next seven days. Friday and Sunday may be a bit cooler with some spots not getting out of the 40s and Saturday should be the warmest with highs well into the 50s.




Milder Air Moving In Next Month


The longer range forecasts still hint at a return to above average temperatures for much of November. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for about near normal temperatures overall from November 1st through the November 5th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has outlooked climbing above average overall from November 3rd through the 9th.



The even long range experimental multi-ensemble model forecasts keep us outlooked above average through the second and third weeks of November. The forecasts for the week ending November 13th and the week ending November 20th have us outlooked above average too.




Drier Pattern Developing


Thirteen of the past sixteen days have seen at least a trace of precipitation with 3.62" of rain so far this month which is 1" more than average. After some possible patchy light rain or snow early today the next chance for precipitation is Thursday into Friday with just light rainfall expected. After Friday it looks like a dry pattern through a week from this Thursday.




The longer range forecasts keep us drier than average well into the start of November. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation from November 1st through the November 5th. The longer range 8-14 day also has us favored for below average precipitation from November 3rd through November 9th.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Cloudy, patch light rain/snow early then partly sunny High: 42


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 54


Thursday: Mostly cloudy, on & off light rain Low: 39 High: 52

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 35 High: 49


Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 55


Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 41 High: 52

Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 50


#ilwx

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