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  • Tim McGill

Mild Monday But Big Drop Coming

Seems More Like September


Today will be the 7th straight day with above average temperatures. It will seem more like September than October through Wednesday. Enjoy it while you can because the coldest air of the season so far will come crashing in for the end of the week.


Gusty southernly winds will help push our highs into the upper 60s today. Those winds will shift to the west with the arrival of a cold front. Gusts could reach 40 mph.



Coldest Since Early May


We will warm up through Wednesday before the dramatic drop in temperatures. Average highs this time of the year are in the lower to middle 60s. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the lower 70s. Highs will fall into the 50s Thursday and Friday. A few models are suggesting highs will fail to get out of the 40s over the weekend. That would be the coldest we've been in six months.


Temperatures by Friday will be 15° or more below average. The chill will be felt all the way into the deep south. I had even mentioned in an earlier post there was even the possibility of snow this weekend but that is no longer the case. It will cold enough at times but the moisture won't be there.


The longer range temperature probability forecasts keep the cool air around well into October. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast have us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from October 17th through the 25th.



The even longer rang multi-ensemble model suggests a milder end to the month. The forecast has the midwest and most of the country outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the week ending October 30th.



This pattern shift may keep us mild right into next month. The 3-4 week temperature probability outlook has us favored for above average temperatures right into the first week of November.



Some October Thunder?


The best chance of rain over the next several days will be today. Scattered showers and even a thunderstorm are most likely during the middle of the days then moving out by later in the afternoon. The GFS model is hinting at a few sprinkles or spotty showers late Thursday and again late Saturday but the chances for rain after today are very small.




The longer range precipitation probability has us favored slightly for above average rainfall overall from October 17th through the 25th.



Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy, windy, sct. showers/t-storms High: 68 (falling temps late)

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, mild & breezy Low: 45 High: 70

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 47 High: 72


Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 49 High: 56


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 35 High: 54


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 50


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 32 High: 49


#ilwx

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