May Rain Record Falls But Drier, Warmer Days Ahead
This month now becomes the third May in a row to break a record for rainfall. Here are the top three wettest Mays on record:
May 2020 8.30"
May 2019 8.25"
May 2018 8.21"
We still have nearly two more weeks to add to this month's total. It does not look very likely we will see the type of significant rain event like we saw Sunday but more rain is coming this month. The GFS model adds another inch to an inch and a third to that total from today through the weekend. The majority of that would come on Memorial Day.
While there will be occasional scattered showers and thunderstorms over the holiday weekend there probably won't be any washouts. After a mainly dry Wednesday through Friday period there will be some scattered stuff Saturday and Sunday but several dry hours too. Monday has the greatest threat for rain. The GFS meteogram cloud cover forecast below shows the driest period tomorrow through Friday while the rainfall forecast (green bars signify rain with red bars within denoting possibility of thunder) indicates Monday will be the wettest day of the long weekend.
Today will be coolest day we'll see for a long time. Highs will be near 60° for areas away from Lake Michigan but will fail to get out of the 50s lakeside. The water temperature near the shoreline is in the lower 50s but only middle to upper 40s in the middle of the lake. The wind will be blowing off that cool water out of the northeast.
Expect steady northeast winds around 10 to 20 miles per hour. There will be occasional gusts to near 30 mph though. Those winds will whip up some big waves along our shoreline. The National Weather Service has issued a Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 this afternoon. The advisory hi-lights those waves that could lead to flooding:
"Persistent northeasterly winds will allow waves to build to 4 to 7 feet tonight into Tuesday. This combined with one half to 1 ft of storm surge brings the potential for minor lakeshore flooding."
How about some good news? There is some. The dryer and warmer pattern I've been talking about for the end of the week and most of Memorial Day weekend appears to be on the way. As mentioned above, there will be some scattered storms at times with most of the rain on Monday but sunshine will be around at times too. Expect highs near 70° Thursday, 70s on Friday and near 80° by Saturday. The warmest day of the weekend will be Sunday as highs climb into the lower to middle 80s. It's worth mentioning again that this should be the warmest weekend in nearly 9 months.
The longer range forecast still keeps us outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the end of May and into the start of June. Average highs for this time of year is in the lower to middle 70s.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM
Today: Cloudy & cool, spotty showers, breezy High: 60 (55 Lakefront)
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 52 High: 66 (61 Lakefront)
Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 68 (62 Lakefront)
Friday: Sun & cloud mix, milder Low: 55 High: 72 (66 Lakefront)
Saturday: Sun & cloud mix, spotty shower/t-storm possible Low: 58 High: 79 ( 70 Lakefront)
Sunday: Sun & cloud mix, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 61 High: 84 (76 Lakefront)
Monday: Partly/mostly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 63 High: 83 (78 Lakefront)