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  • Tim McGill

Just Like July Today But Fall Chill Around Corner



Is Sun Setting On 80s?


Today will mark the 6th straight day above average. So far September is running nearly 2° above average. Today's highs will reach into the lower to middle 80s which are typical high temperatures for the middle of July.

Today will be the warmest day of at least the next ten days and maybe beyond. The chances of reaching to 80° or warmer again before the end of the year drop dramatically as we get into October. It does happen though. Last year we had two more 80° days after this date. In 2018 we had three 80° days after this date. in 2017 we had two 80° days after this date. In 2016 we had one 80° day after this date and in 2015 we had zero. So it can happen but those 80° days are rare after this point.


After our 80s today highs will fall into the 50s by the end of next week. Highs by the end of the week will be similar to what we normally see in late October and early November.


The GFS temperature anomaly forecast shows the weather whiplash we are about to experience. On the left is the anomaly forecast for late Saturday showing temperatures nearly 15° to 20° above average across much of the midwest. The temperature anomaly forecast on the right shows temperatures from 10° to 15° below average by Thursday afternoon. That is a swing of about 25° to 35°.



No sign of any more 80s when we look into the longer range forecasts. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecasts have us outlooked for cooler than average temperatures overall from October 1st through October 9th.



Ending September With Some Rain


September rainfall is .06" above average with 2.78" so far this month. Today will be the 13th straight day without rain. The last time we saw rain this month was on the 13th. At that point we were 1.33" above average. Best chances of rain over the next ten days come later Sunday into Monday and then next Sunday and the following Monday.



Rainfall could be scarce after that. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability forecasts have us outlooked for below average probabilities for rainfall from October 1st through the 9th.



Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy & warm High: 85


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers mainly late Low: 67 High: 77


Monday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 55 High: 65


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 49 High: 62


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 47 High: 64


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 46 High: 56


Friday: Partly to mostly sunnhy Low: 42 High: 54

#ilwx

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