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  • Tim McGill

Jumping Into July

Summery Mix Of Heat & Humidity


It has been a slow but steady warm up this week. Today will be the fifth straight day with above average temperatures and the first day with highs in the 80s in over two weeks. The humidity levels have been climbing along with the temperatures and while it won't be oppressive, it will be more muggy for the next several days.


Fairly strong southerly breezes along with some peaks of sun should send our highs into the lower to middle 80s or about 10° to 15° above average today.


It will be breezy at least through Friday. Today's gusts will get near 30 mph at times and tomorrow's gusts will frequently top 20 mph. A spotty shower can't be ruled out (mainly northwest of the city) especially today but the probability for precipitation remains low the next few days.


We are still looking a stretch of six straight days with highs in the 80s. These temperatures are more typical for the middle of July and not the end of May. This will be the warmest extended period of weather we have seen since September last year. One cool caveat to the warm weekend is the possibility of a backdoor cold front slipping south late in the day on Sunday that could tumble temperatures back into the 50s along the lakeshore.


Notice the highs slipping into the 70s on Wednesday. This will probably be the beginning of a cooler period settling in for the end of May and start of June. More on that with the extended forecast discussion below.


This weekend should be the warmest in nearly nine months with highs near 90° both Saturday and Sunday. The temperature anomaly forecast for early Saturday includes Chicago in a large portion of the country that is expecting the warmest temperatures compared to average. We are forecast to be about 15° to nearly 20° above the average high of 73°.

It stays steamy on Sunday too with the GFS model suggesting highs in the middle to upper 80s. I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots on both Saturday and Sunday tag 90°.






A Little Hope For Help With The Drought


I'll have the latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor tomorrow and it is expected to show that the drought has deepened in northern Illinois.


The GFS model still shows three main chances for some appreciable rain through a week from Saturday. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on Saturday but by no means a washout. Most of the weekend should be dry. More rounds of rain possible next Wednesday and a week from Saturday.


The GFS model precipitation accumulation forecast through Monday morning has reduced the amount of rainfall it is expecting. It now appears the most we can hope for in total from today through Monday is possibly a couple tenths of an inch of rain.




Cooler Pattern Coming For June?


The Chicago area is still favored for above average temperatures overall through the end of May and for the first few days of June but the probabilities have slipped just a bit. This combined with the even longer range subseasonal forecast (discussed below) seems to indicate a slight cooling trend into the beginning of June at least compared to what we will see through this weekend. The 6-10 day forecast favors us for above average temperatures overall from May 25th through May 29th with Chicago's probability between 50-60%. The 8-14 day temperature probability forecast keeps us above average overall from May 27th through June 2nd but the probabilities drop. Average highs for this period are in the lower to middle 70s.




The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecast is favoring the Chicago area for a slightly cooler than average last few days of May and first few days of June overall. The average highs for this period are in the middle to upper 70s. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending June 4th has us outlooked to be just a smidge below average overall. The forecast for the following week ending on June 11th has Chicago about average overall.





More Active Pattern Possible

The longer range precipitation probability forecasts continue to favor us for above average rainfall for the end of May and start of June. This could help put at least a small dent in the ongoing drought that is impacting parts of northern Illinois. The latest 6-10 day forecast has Chicago favored for above average precipitation from May 25th through May 29th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has us favored for above average precipitation overall from May 27th through June 2nd.





Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly cloudy, breezy & warmer, spotty shower? High: 84


Friday: Cloud & sun mix, warm & humid Low: 67 High: 86


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 68 High: 89


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, pm sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 69 High: 89


Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 63 High: 84


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 67 High: 83 (cooler lakeside)


Wednesday: Cloud & sun mix, ct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 61 High: 78 (cooler lakeside)


#ilwx

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