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  • Tim McGill

Johnny Cash Pattern Setting Up


Johnny Cash

I often think of The Man in Black this time of year. Typically in July or August during the heart of summer a dome of heat builds across a large portion of the country. Around the outer edges or the periphery of that dome a series of disturbances can develop that initiate rounds of strong thunderstorms. This pattern is referred to by meteorologists as a "ring of fire". Johnny Cash's song "Ring Of Fire" was ranked No. 4 on CMT's 100 Greatest Songs of Country Music in 2003 and made the Rolling Stone's list of The 500 Greatest Songs of All Time.


We will be inside that dome of heat today with highs in the middle 90s today. The atmosphere will be mainly capped during the day. There will be a few scattered storms but the stronger storms will hold off until early Sunday morning. A "capped" atmosphere means it is fairly stable with a layer of warm air aloft preventing thunderstorms from forming.

Dew points will be high and top out somewhere in the lower to middle 70s for a rather steamy Saturday. That combination of heat and humidity means the heat index values will accede 100° today. That has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a heat advisory until 10 pm tonight.

A cold front is expected to cross through the area overnight and could spark some severe storms mainly after midnight. The cold front will break the cap and allow thunderstorms to harness the heat and humidity that is present to produce some torrential downpours. The greatest threat from those storms will be damaging winds and hail but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in an area with a marginal risk of severe weather.

While the dome of highest heat and humidity slips south of us after today we will still be close enough to it's edge to give us the threat of at least scattered thunderstorms several days next week.


Our hot summer could seriously sizzle through the end of July. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has the bullseye for the highest probability of above average temperatures overall centered right over the Chicago area. We have a high probability of staying above average in the 8-14 day outlook which takes us through the end of the month.



Could the Midwest sizzle right through the start of fall? These long range forecasts allow for some cooler than average days too but overall they favor above average temperatures not only through July but the Climate Prediction Center keeps the heat coming through September in their latest three month outlook that includes August, September and October. Every part of the contiguous US is favored for above average temperatures with highest probabilities in the northeast and the southwest.



Here is my 7 day forecast:


Heat advisory until 10 pm Saturday.


Today: Partly sunny, sct. t-storms, hot & humid, breezy High: 94 (Heat index 101-106)


Sunday: Partly sunny, sct. showers & t-storms mainly early Low: 78 High: 87


Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 70 High: 87 (83 Lakefront)


Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 68 High: 84 (78 Lakefront)


Wednesday: Partly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 72 High: 87 (82 Lakefront)


Thursday: Partly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 72 High: 83 (79 Lakefront)

Friday: Partly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 70 High: 82 (76 Lakefront)


#ilwx

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