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  • Tim McGill

How Long Can This Last?

Records Within Reach


Wednesday's high of 74° at O'Hare tied a record that goes all the way back to 1978. There are more record within reach as this impressive streak of 70s continues. Yesterday may have been the start of the longest streak of 70s ever seen in the month of November here. The longest streak on record is 5 days in a row back in 1953. My forecast is calling for six straight days of 70s (including yesterday).


Here are some of the upcoming record highs that we may approach or even beat:


Friday's record high: 75° My forecast high: 72°

Saturday's record high: 75° My forecast high: 74°

Sunday's record high: 73° My forecast high: 74°

Monday's record high: 74° My forecast high: 73°


Morning clouds today will keep us from threatening today's record high which is 79°. We should still be nearly 20° above average though. Some sunshine & a southwest wind will push our highs to near or just above 70°.



We will stay well above average through the weekend and into early next week. Average highs this time of year are in the lower 50s. We should be 15° to 20° above that through Tuesday. Notice the dramatic drop coming by Wednesday as we fall into the 40s. Highs in the 40s are actually just a few degrees below average but it will be jarring after so many days in the 70s.



The GFS model has about half of the country well above average still on Monday. Highs are forecast to be around 10° to almost 30° above average from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes and all along the east coast.


Mild Through Middle Of Month


In an earlier post here I commented on the expanding area of blue on the longer range forecasts that suggest a flip to a cooler pattern could be coming later this month. The latest longer range forecasts keep the "blue blob" west of the Midwest. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 10th through the November 14th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us above average too from November 12th through the 18th. The yellow, orange and red shades are actually expanding more westward with time suggesting more of the country will be trending towards above average temperatures overall just past the middle of this month. There will be cooler days by the end of the month but this suggests that when all is said and done we will be above average overall overall.



Not Too Late For That Car Wash


This will be the 9th day in a row without any rain. That streak should continue through the weekend. The next decent chance of rain doesn't come until late Monday or early Tuesday.



The rainfall forecast has not change at all compared to yesterday. The total precipitation accumulation forecast from the GFS model through Monday afternoon still only spits out a trace of rain here in total through the next five days.



More rainfall could be back by the middle of the month. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation from November 10th through the November 14th. The longer range 8-14 day continues that trend for above average rainfall from November 12th through November 18th.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Becoming mostly sunny, a bit breezy High: 71


Friday: Sunny skies Low: 48 High: 72


Saturday: Sunny skies Low: 52 High: 74

Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 74


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 57 High: 73


Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance of light rain Low: 57 High: 65


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 41 High: 48


#ilwx

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