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  • Tim McGill

How Does Terrific Tuesday Affect The Election?

Will Sun Shine Evenly On Trump & Biden?


Forecasting election outcomes is tougher than forecasting weather. Trying to predict how weather will affect the outcome of an election is even harder. There are some clues though based on studies.


Weather will definitely not be an excuse to get out and vote. Over 90% of the country should be dry today. The few exceptions include portions of the Pacific Northwest and parts of Utah. Most of the country will have above average temperatures too. 60s will surge all the way north into the northern plains and northern Rockies.


A nasty day with rain or snow would keep those less likely to vote at home according to a 2007 study. Those voters tend to vote in favor of the Democratic presidential candidate, especially during elections with a Republican incumbent.


The Washington Post cited this study and others in their post "Why dry weather this Election Day may boost Biden".


Here's a quote:


The study lent empirical backing to a maxim of campaign politics: Republicans should pray for rain. As recently as 2012, a poll from the Weather Channel found that Barack Obama supporters were more likely than Mitt Romney supporters to be deterred by rain.


A look at the national forecast maps shows terrific weather for a big turnout on this Tuesday. So this would seem to favor Biden but record numbers of people have already voted and that makes this year's election tougher to call based on the study.





Back Above Average


We should bounce back above average today after ten straight days of below average temperatures. Highs today should be about 10° above average. Sunshine and a southwest wind should push our highs into the middle 60s.



Highs stay at least in the 60s all the way through the weekend. Friday we will flirt with 70° and come close to that possibly Saturday & Sunday too.



Colder air comes crashing south this weekend into the western third of the country be we continue to bask in unseasonable warmth. The GFS model has temperatures across most of the Midwest about 15° to to nearly 30° above average by Sunday afternoon. That colder air will catch up with us by the middle of next week so enjoy this mild break while you can.



Cool Change Coming?


The longer range forecasts hint at a turn towards cooler weather but not until after the middle of the month. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 8th through the November 12th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us above average too but the probabilities drop a bit. An expanding area of blue representing probabilities of below average temperatures overall starts to push slowly eastward during the period of November 10th through the 16th. We will have to wait and see if this trend continues.





Get A Car Wash


Dry weather will be here through the weekend. According to the GFS model, the next decent chance of rain doesn't arrive until Monday. We saw a few flurries on Sunday but beyond that, there is no snow in sight with the type of temperatures we are expecting.




This dry pattern may come to an end though next week as a more moist pattern is forecast in the longer range outlooks. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation from November 8th through the November 12th. The longer range 8-14 day continues that trend for a moist Midwest from November 10th through November 16th.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Sunny & milder High: 64


Wednesday: Sunny, breezy & milder Low: 47 High: 66


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 52 High: 67


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 50 High: 68


Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 66

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 67


Monday: Mostly cloudy, light rain possible Low: 55 High: 65


#ilwx

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