Hot & Dry Today But Wet At Times This Weekend
Turning the heat up just a bit today and then again tomorrow. 87° was the high Wednesday which is 6° above average. Our highs today may be a degree or two hotter as they top out in the upper 80s. A light breeze off the lake will keep it cooler there with highs in the upper 70s.
It's been a "dry heat" for the most part. The dew points have been moderate and should stay that way through tomorrow. More moisture is coming just in time for the weekend though. Expect an active pattern beginning Friday night and lasting until early Sunday. The strong ridge of high pressure that has kept us rather warm and dry will be breaking down over the weekend. The best chance of rain will come late Saturday into Saturday night.
Our rainfall deficit for the month compared to average is now at 1.25". We will make up some of that over the weekend. The GFS total precipitation forecast through Sunday afternoon shows about a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch of rain could fall. There could be some locally heavy downpours though with some of the upcoming thunderstorms.
A switch to a cooler pattern for next week looks likely. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from June 23rd through June 27th.
The cooler air could mean temperatures anywhere from 10° to 20° below average by the middle of next week. The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for next Wednesday shows the middle part of the country (and all of the midwest) well below average.
This cooler pattern probably won't last long. The multi-model ensemble temperature anomaly forecast has us outlooked again for above average temperatures overall for the week ending on July 3rd. This forecast has consistently shown a warmer than average start to July.
The Chicago National Weather Service Office reminds us that most areas have an air quality alert in effect today.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Mostly sunny & hot High: 88 (76 Lakefront)
Friday: Mostly sunny & hot Low: 68 High: 91 (86 Lakefront)
Saturday: Showers & t-storms early & late, partly sunny Low: 70 High: 86
Sunday: Shower/t-storm possible early, partly cloudy Low: 68 High: 85 (82 Lakefront)
Monday: Partly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 66 High: 84
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 63 High: 80
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 64 High: 80