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  • Tim McGill

Heat Is Here Through July 4th Weekend

June continues to sizzle. The average temperature for the month is closer to what we see during the month of July. 22 of 28 days so far this month have been above average. June is running overall about 4.8° above average.


No signs of any change to this warm pattern. This week is shaping up to be the warmest of the year so far and Monday will probably be the warmest day of the week.


The HRRR model has highs on Monday afternoon reaching to near 90° but cooler lakeside. Shower and thunderstorm activity along with cloud cover could impact those highs but it will definitely be a muggy Monday.


Not only will it be steamy today with heat index values approaching 100° but it will be stormy at times too. Today's heat and humidity could fuel a few strong thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a "marginal risk" area for severe weather. Damaging winds and hail along with some torrential downpours are the main threat with these storms that will primarily pop up between the midday and late afternoon hours. Marginal risk is the lowest of five risk levels and means "an area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity."


The above average temps will probably keep on coming all the wary through the middle of July at least. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature probability forecasts have us favored to be above average overall from July 4th through July 12th.


Looking even longer range there is no sign of turning back from this warm pattern. The Climate Prediction Center's three-month temperature probability forecast for the months of July, August and September have the vast majority of the country (including the midwest) outlooked for above average temperatures overall all the way through September.



Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly/mostly cloudy, sct. shower/t-storms, some strong High: 90 (82 Lakefront)

Tuesday: Partly/mostly cloudy, pm sct. showers/t-storms Low: 72 High: 88 (82 Lakefront)


Wednesday: Partly sunny, spotty shower or t-storm? Low: 73 High: 88 (82 Lakefront)


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, isolated t-storm? Low: 73 High: 90 (82 Lakefront)


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, isolated t-storm? Low: 72 High: 90 (83 Lakefront)

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 70 High: 86 (78 Lakefront)

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 72 High: 89 (84 Lakefront)

#ilwx

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