Heat & Humidity On Hold For Now But Surging Back Soon
Relatively Cool Today & Tuesday
We followed 7 straight days with above average temperatures with three straight days with below average temperatures. Today should stretch that cooler streak to 4 straight days. A warmer patter will soon kick in though and by the weekend we should be well above average.
The HRRR Model has our highs today reaching only into the 70s. Lower 70s are expected lakeside with a wind off Lake Michigan but away from the lake highs should climb into the upper 70s.
Today will be about 5° to 10° below average (84°) but by next Monday we should be 5° to 10° above average. The temperature anomaly forecast for a week from today has the Midwest and most of the eastern half of the country well above average.
So if you like your summers cooler and more comfortable, then the next two days are for you.
We stay cooler than average through Tuesday with relatively comfortable dew points in the middle 50s.
A wind off the lake both today and tomorrow will contribute to this cooler pattern.
Spotty sprinkles or showers are possible mainly during the afternoon hours through Tuesday but most of us should be rain free.
Our dew points will slowly but surely climb but stay relatively comfortable through Thursday. Dew points are the preferred measurement of moisture for meteorologists. They should be well into the 60s by Friday and near 70° this weekend into early next week. The rising dew points coincide with rising temperatures and by Sunday the heat index could reach 100°.
The National Blend Of Models shows a mostly steady rise in temperatures through Monday. The exception is Friday when our highs drop just a few degrees. By Sunday our highs are back up to near 90°.
Expect more hazy sunshine today. The HRRR Model near-surface smoke forecast indicates wildfire smoke from fires out west and Canada will make its way to near the surface again today. Like yesterday it should give the sun a milky appearance and make for a beautiful sunset as it gives the sun a red hue this evening.
Here are some articles related to wildfire smoke that you may be interested in:
This week will warm above average but this upcoming weekend and the week after may be even hotter. The 6-10 day forecast has outlooked Chicago for above average temperatures overall from August 7th through August 11th with us right in the middle of the highest probabilities. The longer range 8-14 day forecast continues to favor us for above average temperatures overall from August 9th through August 15th. Average highs are in the lower to middle 80s for the start to August.
The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecasts keeps us warmer than average through nearly the end of August. The forecast for the week ending on August 20th has us outlooked for above average temperatures. The forecast for the week ending on August 27th favors us for above average temperatures overall too.
No Real Drought Relief Coming
July ended up 1.81" of rain below average and we are now down 6 inches below average since the start of spring. The forecast for the next ten doesn't bring the kind of substantial rain we need to put a decent dent in the drought impacting our northern suburbs.
Here is a recap of the latest drought analysis that I posted last Friday:
The latest analysis from the US Drought Monitor shows absolutely no change in drought conditions for northern Illinois from the previous analysis a week ago. The area of Illinois in a moderate drought (level 1 out of 4) remains unchanged at 7.17%. The area of the state in a severe drought (level 2 out of 4) remains unchanged at 2.31%.
It has been a fairly dry end to the month of July so far. Rainfall over a two week period that ended on July 28th shows the most parched portions of Illinois were out of luck when it came to rainfall. Parts of Lake and McHenry counties picked up just 10% to 25% of average rainfall during the period. Most of the northern third of the state was well below average in terms of rainfall.
The latest GFS model suggests some spotty sprinkles or showers today but the next best chance for rain comes late Friday into Saturday with another round of rain possible Saturday night into Sunday.
Adding up all the potential rainfall this week does offer some hope for our northern suburbs but more rain will be needed to see significant improvement there.
The GFS model total rainfall forecast through next weekend paints in about an inch and a quarter of rain for our northern suburbs and then tapers off the rainfall to about a half inch in the city and areas southeast of Chicago.
The Midwest region saw improvements in one drought level but more discouraging news for two others. The area in a moderate drought fell .18% to 27.33% for the state. The area in a severe drought increased .82% to 16.74%. The area in an extreme drought increased .60% to 3.73%.
The west is still suffering from a serious drought that has expanded in two out of the four drought levels and has shrunk in two others. Both the moderate and severe drought area has expanded slightly while the extreme and exceptional drought areas have decreased at least slightly. The most substantial shift was in the highest drought level. The area in an exception drought fell from 28.03% to 24.63%.
For the first time in a few weeks both of the long range precipitation probability forecasts have us outlooked for above average rainfall. A more active period may develop starting sometime around this weekend and last through that following week. The latest 6-10 day forecast has the Chicago area favored for above average precipitation overall from August 7th through August 11th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also favors us for above average rainfall from August 9th through August 15th.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, spotty shower possible High: 77 (72 lakeside)
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, pm spotty shower? Low: 60 High: 81 (78 lakeside)
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, warmer Low: 63 High: 83 (cooler lakeside)
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 65 High: 85
Friday: Partly/mostly sunny, pm sct. t-storm? Low: 67 High: 83
Saturday: Partly/mostly sunny, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 72 High: 88
Sunday: Partly/mostly sunny, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 74 High: 90