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  • Tim McGill

Hang In There Because The Weekend Looks Wonderful

Some Spotty Showers Today

Wednesday saw a wide range in high temperatures. There was more than a 25° spread from the coolest spots to the warmest. Northerly Isle topped out with a cool high of 46°. O'Hare officially reached 51° but it soared to 72° in Aurora.

The spread in temperatures today won't be as dramatic. Highs will range from the middle 50s along the lakefront to near 70° well west of the city. Most of us should be at least a few degrees above the average high of 64° for today's date.

Friday's highs will fail to get out of the 50s in many areas and might even fail to climb out of the 40s along the lakefront. Our winds will shift off the lake early Friday and that brisk breeze will mean highs 5° to 20° below average. Most of us should see a high well into the 50s but only middle 40s expected lakeside.

Hang in there because we still have a warmer weekend to look forward to. Highs both Saturday and Sunday should surge well into the 70s with a few spots possibly tagging 80° or more.

The temperature anomaly forecast for Saturday afternoon has temperatures here around 15° or more above average. From the Midwest to Montana, through the Rockies and southward into the desert southwest, most of the country will be above average.

More Rain Needed

Rain soaked areas south of the city on Wednesday but spared areas that really needed it. Some spots well south of Chicago saw more than two inches of rain. Parts of Chicago saw up to a half inch of rain but our northern suburbs which are still in a moderate drought did not receive any significant rain.

We will see only spotty showers and stray sprinkles early today and a few scattered showers (and even an isolated thunderstorm) are possible late today. That being said, most of the day will be dry. Our next decent chance for some significant rain won't arrive until Monday into Tuesday next week accord to the GFS model.

The HRRR model precipitation accumulation forecast through tonight spits just a trace of rain for most areas with nearly a tenth of an inch in a few spots.

Timing Is Everything

The hourly temperature meteogram compares many different forecast models. The warmest two days of the next seven fall over this weekend. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be at least well into the 70s and even 80° is possible.

Back To About Average

The signal in the long range temperature probability forecasts had been consistently suggesting above average temperatures overall here. The latest forecasts drop us back to about average. The latest 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for near normal temperatures overall from May 4th through May 8th. The 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us favored for staying about average overall from May 6th through May 12th. Average highs for start of May are in the middle to upper 60s.

The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecast is signaling a cooler than average pattern though settling in for the middle two weeks of May. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending May 14th has us outlooked to be below average overall. The forecast for the following week ending on May 21st has Chicago below average overall too. Average highs for this period are in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Weak Signal For Above Average Rainfall

The long range precipitation probability forecasts favors us slightly for above average precipitation from the start of and into the middle of May. The latest 6-10 day has Chicago favored for above average precipitation from May 4th through May 8th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us favored for above average precipitation overall from May 6th through May 12th too. In both case the probabilities are on the lower end.

Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: A.M. spotty showers, mostly cloudy, pm sct. shower/isolated t-storm possible

High: 66 (56 Lakefont)

Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 44 High: 59 (48 lakeside)

Saturday: Mostly sunny, windy & warmer Low: 46 High: 80

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy & warm Low: 61 High: 82

Monday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers & t-storms Low: 59 High: 66 (cooler lakeside)

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 48 High: 60 (cooler lakeside)

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 46 High: 62 (cooler lakeside)



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