Getting Back To Summer Soon
More Typical July Temps Coming
Lately it has felt like summer has been put on hold. The past four days have seen highs only in the 60s and 70s. O'Hare is now running nearly 3° below average. We will warm back up to and even above average this week.
The GFS model has highs still about 10° below average today but a bit warmer than what we saw on Sunday. Highs today should climb into the middle 70s but cooler lakeside with highs there in the lower 70s. Today should be the last day this week with widespread highs in the 70s. 80° or above is expected for most of us Tuesday through at least the weekend.
Dew points have only been moderately high the past few days. Dew points are the preferred measurement of moisture for meteorologists. They will climb well into the 60s by Wednesday and flirt with 70° possibly on Thursday. It will get a bit more muggy this week to coincide with our warm up.
The breeze we had off the lake all weekend will continue on this Monday. Winds shift to the west Tuesday to help bring in some warmer air.
The best chance of rain over the next two days will be late this afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Only 30% to just over 40% of the area will see some mainly scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
The National Blend Of Models has highs stuck in the 70s again today then it is 80° or above for the next ten days in a row at least.
The longer range temperature probability forecasts suggest our warm up this week may last well into July. The 6-10 day forecast has outlooked us for above average temperatures overall from July 17th through July 21st. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also favors us for above average temperatures overall from July 19th through July 25th. Average highs are in the middle 80s for the middle of July.
The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecasts keeps us sandwiched between an expected warmer than average plains and western half of the country and a cooler middle and eastern part of the US. A close examination of these forecasts shows we are expected to be right around average overall for the end of July as start to August. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending July 30th has us outlooked for temperatures near normal. The forecast for the following week ending on August 6th also has Chicago outlooked for about average temperatures too.
Still Looking For Drought Relief
July has started out very dry. The first eleven days of the month have only seen .20" of rain. Even taking into consideration our wet June, O'Hare is down over five inches of rain below average since the start of meteorological spring on March 1st.
Here is a recap on the latest US Drought Monitor analysis that I posted on Friday (it does not include any of our weekend rainfall):
Comparing this week's analysis to last week's shows only the slightest improvement. The portions of Illinois in a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) dropped from 7.55% to 7.40%. The severe drought area (level 2 of 4) remains unchanged at 2.22%. The extreme drought area (level 3 of 4) is unchanged at .96%.
Much of our already parched portions of northern Illinois saw between 0% to 5% of average rainfall for the first week of July.
The latest GFS model run suggest a few chances for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. We should see some today and tomorrow and another round could come Thursday into Friday.
A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could be strong in northern Indiana. The Storm Prediction Center has placed that region in a marginal risk for severe weather. The greatest threat would be damaging winds with heavy downpours.
A marginal risk is level 1 out of 5 possible risk levels. It is the low end of the risk categories but means "an area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity".
The GFS model total rainfall forecast through this this evening shows very little rain expected where we need it the most. Our northern suburbs are forecast to see perhaps a trace of rain in spots. More rain is expected from the city southward where up to a quarter to a half inch of rain could come down.
I ran the model out through the Friday evening. Adding up all the rainfall this week leads to a more promising outlook for some of our most parched portions of northern Illinois. The range of rainfall expected is anywhere from around an inch from the city on southward to nearly two inches for our northern suburbs. The models have been overestimating rainfall lately so take this forecast with a few grains of salt.
The longer range precipitation probability forecasts have reversed course compared to last week's model runs. This is discouraging news for our drought situation. The latest 6-10 day forecast has the Chicago area favored for below average precipitation overall from July 17th through July 21st with the highest probabilities over our area. The longer range 8-14 day forecast keeps us favored for below average precipitation overall from July 19th through July 25th.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Peeks of sun, scattered showers (isolated t-storms possible) High: 75 (71 lakeside)
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 68 High: 82
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, warmer & more humid Low: 69 High: 88
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 70 High: 85
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers & t-storms Low: 71 High: 82 (cooler lakeside)
Saturday: Partly/mostly sunny, sct. shower/-storm possible Low: 67 High: 85 (cooler lakeside)
Sunday: Partly/mostly sunny, sct. shower/-storm possible Low: 68 High: 83 (cooler lakeside)