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  • Tim McGill

From Spring Fling To Small Chance Of Snow

Bring On Spring


Tuesday was the 5th day in a row below average but Thursday it will feel more like May than October. Average highs for this time of the year are right around 60°. We will fall short today with a high in the upper 50s.

We climb back above average tomorrow with highs in the 70s. It will be a brief spring fling. Friday will start off mild early in the day with some 60s then fall into the 50s. It is basically all downhill from there through early next week. Highs near 50 on Saturday and then upper 40s to low 50s Monday and Tuesday. Some models are suggesting only 30s for highs by Tuesday. So in six days we will go from feeling more like May to feeling more like December.



Snow Staying Just North & West


My post yesterday mentioned the possibility of snow late Sunday and into early next week. The GFS model was suggesting a couple of inches possible in total between late Sunday into early Tuesday. I also cautioned that models could be fickle this far out and that things would probably change. Things have changed. The newer GFS model run suggests maybe a trace of snow for a few areas north and west of the city for late Monday into early Tuesday. The real snow stays well north and west though. Still looking at the possibility of over a foot of snow for parts of northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.



Cool To Cold Pattern


Temperatures begin to tumble Friday afternoon and we don't see any recovery into early next week. This cool to cold pattern could stick around through the end of the month.


The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from October 25th through the 29th. The longer range 8-14 day extends that colder pattern from October 24th through the 30th.





Milder Next Month?


There is still hope for a milder turnaround next month. The experimental multi-ensemble model forecasts for the first two weeks of November have us (and most of the country) outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the weeks ending on November 6th and 13th.



Keep Umbrella Handy


Seven of the last nine days have seen at least a trace of rain or more. This active pattern will continue through the start of next week and maybe even beyond. Best chances for rain include tonight into early Thursday, Friday and then later Sunday into Tuesday. Some of the rain Monday could end with some light snow late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.



Looking longer range the 6-10 day and the 8-14 day precipitation probability forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation overall from October 22nd through the 30th.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, cool High: 57


Thursday: AM shower or t-storm possible then partly sunny, breezy Low: 48 High: 73


Friday: Scattered showers & thunderstorms Low: 56 High: 64 (falling into 50s)


Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 38 High: 50


Sunday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers mainly late Low: 37 High: 49


Monday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers Low: 39 High: 49


Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 40


#ilwx

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