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  • Tim McGill

From Feeling Like Spring To Wintry Weather In 5 Days

More Like May Than October Today

Our temperature rollercoaster ride is headed uphill today with highs near 70° for a taste of spring. The downhill drop will be dramatic on Sunday when we start off early in the day in the 60s but fall into the 40s during the afternoon.

After a soggy start on this Thursday some sunshine should break out to combine with southerly winds to push our highs to near 70°.

This could be the last of the 70s this year. I discussed this in an earlier post. The average last day for a high of 70° or warmer is October 29th. No sign of any 70s next week as highs fall into the 40s from Saturday through Wednesday. Tomorrow is a transition day with a mild morning in the 60s followed by the dramatic drop into the 40s during the afternoon.

Cold Pattern Coming

It will be about a 25° to 30° drop from today's highs to Monday's highs. Temperatures across most of northern Illinois will be 15° to nearly 25° colder than average. This chill will be felt from North Dakota to northern Texas with temperatures more than 30° below average.

The GFS model continues to suggest some snow possible in northern Illinois later Monday into early Tuesday morning. Nothing expected in the city but the snowfall accumulation forecast lays down one to three inches well north and west of Chicago. Still not a lot of confidence in this part of the forecast since the models are not in agreement so stay tuned.

Milder Next Month?

Once the chill sets in it might stick around into the start of November. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from October 27th through the 31st. The longer range 8-14 day extends that colder pattern from October 29th through November 4th although the probabilities drop a bit. That could be an indication this colder pattern might start to ease a bit by November.

That idea is supported by the experimental multi-ensemble model forecasts for the first two weeks of November. The temperature anomaly forecasts for the first two weeks of November suggest a relatively mild beginning to the month. This pattern isn't restricted to the midwest. Most of the country is projected to see temperatures at least slightly above average overall during the first half of November.

Precipitation Pattern Change Possible

After showers early today we dry out until late tonight. A wet end to the week on Friday with showers and scattered thunderstorms then drying out for most of the weekend. Best chance of rain after tomorrow is later Sunday into Monday. If temperatures fall enough late Monday and there is still some moisture around, this would be the chance for a little light snow in spots.

The longer range precipitation probability forecasts suggest this more active pattern that has seen rain nine of the past eleven days may come to an end by the start of next month. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation from October 27th through the 31st. The longer range 8-14 day has us favored for below average precipitation from October 29th through November 4th.

Here is my 7 day forecast: Today: Becoming partly to mostly sunny late, breezy & milder High: 70 Friday: Scattered showers & thunderstorms Low: 59 High: 60 (falling into 40s)

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 38 High: 48 Sunday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers mainly late Low: 38 High: 49 Monday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers Low: 39 High: 47 Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny Low: 32 High: 49

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 33 High: 49 #ilwx


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