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  • Tim McGill

From 70s This Weekend To Snow Next?

Mild Start But Cool Finish Today


The first five days of October started off below average but the month has bounced back. Today will be the 5th straight day with temperatures above average. It felt more like July yesterday than October with a high of 82. This recent warmth has eroded the temperature deficit that the month started with and now October is just .2° below normal.

While it will be warmer than average again today there will be a dramatic drop in temperatures this afternoon. The map below shows forecast temperatures for 3pm with most areas in the lower to middle 70s.



A front sliding south along Lake Michigan will turn the winds off the lake and temperatures will fall into the 50s. The map below is the forecast temperatures for 6 pm.



Say It Ain't Snow


Speaking of dramatic drops in temperatures...


The GFS model is suggesting we could see the first snow of the season next Saturday. The total snowfall accumulation forecast spits out about a half inch of snow in our far northwestern suburbs by next Saturday. A lot could change between now and then and not all forecast models agree so take this with a grain of salt for now.


If that snow does fall next Saturday it would be at least three weeks ahead of schedule. The average first date of a trace of snow or more is October 30th. The average first date of .1" of snow or more is November 17th. The average first date of an inch or more of snow is December 7th.




The models do agree that it will be much colder next weekend compared to this weekend. The GFS model has our highs falling to the lower 50s by Friday.


This could be the beginning of a shift to a cooler pattern. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for cooler than average temperatures overall from October 15th through the 23rd.



Looking even longer range there is hope for a mild end to the month. The multi-model ensemble forecast has the midwest outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the week ending on October 30th.



Mainly Dry For Now


Rainfall chances are limited for the next seven days. As the cold front comes through today there may be some sprinkles or drizzle but most areas will remain dry. Late Monday is the best chance for a few showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm.




The long range precipitation probability forecast has us swing from below average precipitation in the 6-10 day precipitation probability forecast for October 15th through the 19th to above average in the 8-14 day for October 17th through the 23rd.




Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy High: 74 (falling into the upper 50s/lower 60s late)


Sunday: Partly mostly cloudy Low: 56 High: 68


Monday: Partly/mostly cloudy, a few scattered showers (t-storm possible) Low: 59 High: 70


Tuesday: Mostly sunny Low: 49 High: 70


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 47 High: 67

Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 46 High: 59


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 40 High: 53

#ilwx

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